Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning: Redefinition and Calculation for Ungauged Areas

QIN Yi; CHEN Xing-xing; ZENG Shan

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20161341

PDF(1321 KB)

Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2018, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6) : 42-46. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20161341

FLOOD PREVENTION AND DISASTER REDUCTION

Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning: Redefinition and Calculation for Ungauged Areas

QIN Yi¹, CHEN Xing-xing², ZENG Shan¹

Author information +

History +

Abstract

Confusion arises in practical application due to multiple definitions of rainfall threshold for flash flood warning. In view of this, we analyzed and summarized the existing definitions, and redefined the rainfall threshold for early warning into two types planned rainfall threshold and emergency rainfall threshold. In line with the mechanism of flow yield and confluence, we proposed a simple and feasible method of calculating the emergency rainfall threshold for ungauged areas. Comparison of calculation result between the two types indicates that the variations of planned rainfall threshold and emergency rainfall threshold are featured with different rules. In forming prevention and control measures for flash flood, we should make clear the objectives (for early warning or for engineering design) in determining the indicator type to realize a reasonable prevention and control.

Key words

flash flood disaster / early warning period / planned rainfall threshold for early warning / emergency rainfall threshold / ungauged area

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

QIN Yi, CHEN Xing-xing, ZENG Shan. Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Warning: Redefinition and Calculation for Ungauged Areas[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2018, 35(6): 42-46 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20161341

References

[1] 全国山洪灾害防治规划领导小组办公室.全国山洪灾害防治规划.北京:全国山洪灾害防治规划领导小组办公室,2006.
[2] NEARY D G, SWIFT JR L W. Rainfall Thresholds for Triggering a Debris Avalanching Event in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Reviews in Engineering Geology,1987,7:81-92.
[3] DAHAL R K, HASEGAWA S. Representative Rainfall Thresholds for Landslides in the Nepal Himalaya. Geomorphology,2008,100(3/4):429-443.
[4] MOGIL H M, MONRO J C, GROPER H S. NWS’s Flash Flood Warning and Disaster Preparedness Programs. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1978,59(6):690-699.
[5] SMITH K T, AUSTIN G L.Nowcasting Precipitation—A Proposal for a Way Forward .Journal of Hydrology, 2000, 239(1/4):34-45.
[6] 全国山洪灾害防治项目组.山洪灾害分析评价方法指南.北京:全国山洪灾害防治项目组,2015.
[7] 水利部水文局(水利信息中心).中小河流山洪监测与预警预测技术研究.北京:科学出版社,2010.
[8] HAPUARACHCHI H, WANG Q J, PAGANO T C. A Review of Advances in Flash Flood Forecasting. Hydrological Processes,2011,25(18):2771-2784.
[9] NORBIATO D, BORGA M, DINALE R. Flash Flood Warning in Ungauged Basins by Use of the Flash Flood Guidance and Model-based Runoff Thresholds. Meteorological Applications,2009,16(1):65-75.
[10]SHAMIR E, GEORGAKAKOS K P, SPENCER C, et al. Evaluation of Real-time Flash Flood Forecasts for Haiti During the Passage of Hurricane Tomas, November 4-6, 2010. Natural Hazards, 2013, 67(2):459-482.
[11]SEO D, LAKHANKAR T, MEJIA J, et al. Evaluation of Operational National Weather Service Gridded Flash Flood Guidance over the Arkansas Red River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2013,49(6):1296-1307.
[12]NORBIATO D, BORGA M, ESPOSTI S D, et al. Flash Flood Warning Based on Rainfall Thresholds and Soil Moisture Conditions: An Assessment for Gauged and Ungauged Basins. Journal of Hydrology, 2008, 362(3):274-290.
[13]CARPENTER T M, SPERFSLAGE J A, GEORGAKAKOS K P, et al. National Threshold Runoff Estimation Utilizing GIS in Support of Operational Flash Flood Warning Systems. Journal of Hydrology,1999,224(1/2):21-44.
[14]GEORGAKAKOS K P. Analytical Results for Operational Flash Flood Guidance. Journal of Hydrology,2006,317(1/2):81-103.
[15]PERTERS J C. HEC-HMS Hydrologic Modeling System: User’s Manual. Davis, CA, USA: Hydrologic Engineering Center, 1998.
[16]陈桂亚,袁雅鸣.山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算方法研究.水资源研究,2004,25(4):36-38,40.
[17]赵然杭,王敏,陆小蕾.山洪灾害预警雨量指标确定方法研究.水电能源科学,2011,29(9):49-53.
[18]程卫帅.山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述.水科学进展,2013,24(6):901-908.
[19]叶金印,李致家,吴勇拓.一种用于缺资料地区山洪预警方法研究与应用.水力发电学报,2013,32(3):15-19,33.
[20]刘志雨,杨大文,胡健伟.基于动态临界雨量的中小河流山洪预警方法及其应用.北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(3): 317-321.
[21]叶勇,王振宇,范波芹.浙江省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量确定方法分析.水文,2008,28(1):56-58.
[22]秦毅,沈冰,李怀恩,等.基于物理成因概念的水文系统模型及其应用.水利学报,2004,(4):52-56.