TimeSeries Model of Landslide Displacement Prediction Based onthe Characteristics of Inducing Factors

HUANG Li; LUO Wen-qiang; LI Fei-ao; LIU Xiao-shan

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20140350

PDF(1249 KB)

Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute ›› 2015, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (10) : 28-32. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20140350

ENGINEERING SAFETY AND DISASTER PREVENTION

TimeSeries Model of Landslide Displacement Prediction Based onthe Characteristics of Inducing Factors

HUANG Li, LUO Wen-qiang, LI Fei-ao, LIU Xiao-shan

Author information +

History +

Abstract

Rainfall and reservoir water level variation are major external factors inducing landslide. Hysteresis and periodicity of rainfall and reservoir water level variation are important influence factors of landslide displacement. In this paper, a multivariate time series model with rainfall and reservoir water level variation as impact factors of displacement prediction was established. The effect of hysteresis and periodicity of rainfall and reservoir water level variation on the cumulative displacement of landslide was considered. Baishuihe landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area was taken as a case study. Firstly, gray model was employed to extract the trend term displacement; and then the lagged variations of rainfall and reservoir water level were used to predict the displacement of the periodic term; finally, the predicted value of accumulative displacement is obtained by superposing the displacements of the trend term and the periodic term. Results prove that the dynamic effects of inducing factors on the cumulative displacement of landslide could be well reflected by this model. It has high prediction accuracy, with the average absolute error 1.97%.

Key words

landslide / inducing factor / hysteresis / periodicity / displacement prediction / multivariate time series model

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

HUANG Li, LUO Wen-qiang, LI Fei-ao, LIU Xiao-shan. TimeSeries Model of Landslide Displacement Prediction Based onthe Characteristics of Inducing Factors[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2015, 32(10): 28-32 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20140350

References

[1] 汝树勋,段维钧.阶梯式溢流坝[J] ．四川水力发电, 1992, (2) : 50-54. (RU Shuxun, DUAN Weijun. Stepped Overflow Dam[J] . Sichuan Hydroelectric Power, 1992, (2) : 50-54. (in Chinese))
[2] 张峰,刘韩生.台阶式溢洪道消能特性的研究[J] . 水利与建筑工程学报, 2012, (8):11-14. (ZHANG Feng, LIU Hansheng. Study on Energy Dissipation Properties of Stepped Spillway[J] . Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, 2012, (8):11-14.(in Chinese))
[3] 林可冀,韩立,邓毅国.大朝山水电站RCC溢流坝宽尾墩、台阶式坝面联合消能工的研究及应用 [J] .云南水力发电,2002,18(4):6-15. (LIN Keji, HAN Li, DENG Yiguo. Study and Application of the Combined Energy Dissipator of RCC Overflow Dam Flaring Piers and Stepped Dam Face in the Dachaoshan Hydropower Plant[J] . Yunnan Water Power, 2002,18(4):6-15. (in Chinese))
[4] 艾克明.台阶式斜槽溢洪道的应用状况浅析[C] //泄水工程与高速水流.长春:吉林人民出版社,2000:1-9. (AI Keming. Discussion on the Application of Stepped Chute Spillway[C] //Discharge Engineering and High Velocity Flow. Changchun: Jilin People’s Publishing House, 2000: 1-9. (in Chinese))
[5] 高仪生,陈俊,曾泳.水布垭溢洪道一级挑流消能试验研究[C] //泄水工程与高速水流.长春:吉林人民出版社,1998:65-71. (GAO Yisheng, CHEN Jun, ZENG Yong. Experimental Research on the Energy Dissipation of Shuibuya Spillway[C] //Discharge Engineering and High Velocity Flow. Changchun: Jilin People’s Publishing House, 1998: 65-71. (in Chinese))
[6] 艾克明.台阶式泄槽溢洪道的水力特性和设计应用[J] .水力发电学报,1998,(4):86-95. (AI Keming. Hydraulic Characteristics and Design Application of Stepped Chute Spillways[J] . Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering. 1998,(4): 86-95. (in Chinese))
[7] 何光同,曾宪康,李祖发,等.水东水电站新型消能工结构优化设计[J] .水力发电,1994,(9):26-28,62. (HE Guangtong, ZENG Xiankang, LI Zufa, et al . Optimum Design of new Energy Dissipators of Shuidong Hydropower Station[J] . Water Power, 1994,(9):26-28,62. (in Chinese))
[8] 艾克明.江垭大坝漫溢最大可能洪水(PMF)的水力计算[J] . 湖南水利,1997,(5):5-9. (AI Keming. Hydraulic Calculation of PMF of Jiangya Dam[J] . Hunan Hydropower, 1997, (5): 5-9. (in Chinese))
[9] 赖翼峰,孙永和,陈灿辉. 稿树下水库溢洪道消能工的选择泄水工程与高速水流[C] //长春:吉林人民出版社,1998:61-64. (LAI Yifeng, SUN Yonghe, CHEN Canhui. Selection of Dissipator for the Spillway of Gaoshuxia Reservoir[C] //Discharge Engineering and High Velocity Flow. Changchun: Jilin People’s Publishing House, 1998:61-64 (in Chinese))
[10] 贺事忠,王美生.阶梯式泄槽消能工的应用[J] .南昌水专学报,1998,17(1):32-36. (HE Shizhong, WANG Meisheng. The Application of Energy Dissipation of Stepped Sluice[J] . Journal of Nanchang College of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, 1998,17(1): 32-36. (in Chinese))
[11] 杨首龙.宽尾墩－阶梯式坝面－戽池联合消能工的水力特性[J] .水力发电,1994,(9):29-31. (YANG Shoulong. Hydraulic Characteristic of Flaring Pier Stepped Dam Facescoop Pool Union Dissipator[J] . Water Power,1994,(9): 29-31. (in Chinese))
[12] 付奎.岗曲河一级水电站侧槽溢洪道上游部分及台阶溢洪道试验研究[D] .杨陵:西北农林科技大学,2008. (FU Kui. Test Study on the Upstream Part of Side Channel Spillway and Stepped Spillway of the First Step Hydropower Station in Gangqu River[D] . Yangling: Northwest A & FUniversity, 2008. (in Chinese))
[13] 田嘉宁,大津岩夫,李建中,等.台阶式溢洪道各流况的消能特性 [J] .水利学报,2003,(4):35-39. (TIAN Jianing, OHTSU I, LI Jianzhong, et al . The Characters of Energy Dissipation under Different Flows on Stepped Spillways[J] . Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2003,(4):35-39. (in Chinese))
[14] 吴守荣,张建民,许唯临,等.前置掺气坎式阶梯溢洪道体型布置优化试验研究[J] .四川大学学报(工程科学版),2008,(5):37-42. (WU Shourong, ZHANG Jianmin, XU Weilin, et al . Experimental Investigation on Hydraulic Characteristics of the Flow in the Preaerator Stepped Spillways[J] . Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science ), 2008,(5):37-42.(in Chinese))
[15] 盘春军.台阶溢流坝在乐滩水电站中的应用[J] .红水河,2006,(2):101-104. (PAN Chunjun. Application of Stepped Spillway on Letan Hydropower Station[J] . Hongshui River, 2006,(2):101-104. (in Chinese))
[16] 唐朝阳.鱼背山水电站溢洪道消能工设计研究[J] .水电站设计,1995,(12):30-34. (TANG Chaoyang. Study on Dissipator Design of Spillway of Yubeishan Hydropower Station[J] . Electromechanical Technology of Hydropower Station, 1995,(12):30-34. (in Chinese))
[17] 陈群,戴光清.鱼背山水库岸边阶梯溢洪道流场的三维数值模拟[J] .水力发电学报,2002,(3):62-72. (CHEN Qun, DAI Guangqing. Threedimensional Numerical Simulation of the Stepped Spillway Overflow at Yubeishan Reservoir[J] . Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2002,(3):62-72. (in Chinese))