江西省是洪涝灾害发生较频繁的区域,特别是受上游洪水和鄱阳湖水顶托双重作用的赣抚尾闾河段。分析其洪水风险,对于提高江西省防洪减灾能力、减轻或避免生命财产损失是非常必要和迫切的。以抚东堤防洪保护区为例,利用MIKE软件建立一维、二维耦合模型,分析不同溃口在标准内(20 a一遇)和标准外(50 a一遇)洪水叠加鄱阳湖1954年型设计洪水条件下的洪水演进过程、淹没范围和淹没损失等。研究结果表明,由于抚东堤防洪保护区内地形起伏较大,不同河段的溃口溃决后的风险大小不同,其中上段李家渡水文站下侧溃口发生溃决时,洪水影响最大。研究结果对于类似区域洪水风险分析具有一定的参考价值。

Flood disaster is the most frequently and most widely distributed natural disaster in Jiangxi province, particularly in the tail channel of Ganjiang River and Fuhe River influenced by flood coming from the upstream and backwatering effect of the Poyang Lake. Thus, studying flood risk is imperative for improving flood control and disaster reduction capacity, as well as relieving and refraining from loss of life and property. With the flood control area of Fudong dike as a case study, we built 1D-and-2D coupled model in MIKE software to analyze the flood routing process, submerged area and submergence loss under the condition of floods above (50-year event) and below (20-year event) standard together with the backwatering effect of Poyang Lake in different breaches. Results implied that flood risk at different breaches varied due to topographic relief. The flood risk of downstream side breach at Lijiadu hydrometric station is the largest.