为加强香溪河流域的综合治理和水资源合理开发, 以香溪河流域兴山水文站实测流量数据为基础, 分别采用线性趋势、累积距平、Theil-Sen’s估计和Mann-Kendall趋势及突变检验法对流域径流的变化趋势和突变进行分析。结果表明香溪河流域多年平均径流为11.59亿m3/a;年均、春、秋3个系列径流量下降趋势显著, 均通过了0.05显著性水平检验;夏季下降趋势不显著, 冬季上升趋势不显著。从径流的突变情况来看, 年径流发生在1989年;春季发生在1978年;夏季径流发生了7次突变, 情况复杂;秋季发生在1989年;冬季发生在1988年。 在整个研究时段内, 1990年前径流与降水变化基本一致, 但此后径流量随降雨的缓慢升高而表现为下降趋势。表明自20世纪90年代开始, 人类活动对流域干预作用增强, 对径流的影响不容忽视。
Abstract
Trend test methods, including linear regression, accumulated anomaly, Theil-Sen’s estimation and Mann-Kendall trend, were employed to respectively analyze the variation trend and abruption of runoff series measured at Xingshan gauging station in Xiangxi river watershed. Result showed that the annual runoff of Xiangxi watershed was 11.59×108 m3 the annual runoff, spring runoff and autumn runoff decreased remarkably (all passed significant test at 0.05 level) however, the runoff trends in summer and winter were not significant. The abruption of annual runoff appeared in 1989, spring abruption in 1978, autumn abruption occurred in 1989, and winter abruption in 1988 there were 7 abruptions in summer. From 1965 to 1990, runoff and precipitation were consistent, which showed that the runoff variation was well associated with precipitation while since 1991, the runoff decreased with the gradual increase of precipitation, which revealed that human activity has affected runoff and the influence cannot be ignored.
关键词
香溪河流域 /
径流量 /
趋势分析 /
突变分析
Key words
Xiangxi river watershed /
runoff /
trend analysis /
abruption analysis
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基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41271303);水利部科技推广项目(TG1310);长江科学院创新团队项目(CKSF2012052/TB)
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