针对浮球覆盖水体的蒸发预测问题，本研究在 Priestley-Taylor 模型基础上引入修正项g(m)，通过分析覆盖率与潜热通量关系，确定指数型（高温季节）与线性型（过渡季节）修正形式，并采用稳健回归方法以降低异常值干扰。经交叉验证，结果表明指数模型精度显著优于线性模型（D=0.986，NSE=0.947，RMSE=0.54 mm·d^-1），且参数稳定性强、无系统偏差。在异地高覆盖率验证中，模型也展现了良好的适应性（NSE=0.734，D=0.890）。本文提出的改进模型基于基础气象参数构建不同浮球覆盖率统一预测框架，实现不同覆盖率下蒸发过程的精准估算，为干旱区水资源管理提供高效且实用的计算方法。

Aiming at the evaporation prediction problem of water body covered by floating balls, this study introduces a correction term g(m) based on the Priestley-Taylor model. By analyzing the relationship between coverage and latent heat flux, the exponential ( high temperature season ) and linear ( transition season ) correction forms are determined, and robust regression method is used to reduce the interference of outliers. The results of cross-validation showed that the accuracy of the exponential model was significantly better than that of the linear model ( D = 0.986, NSE = 0.947, RMSE = 0.54 mm·d^-1 ), and the parameters had strong stability and no systematic deviation. In the verification of high coverage in different places, the model also showed good adaptability ( NSE = 0.734, D = 0.890 ). The improved model proposed in this paper constructs a unified prediction framework for different float coverage rates based on basic meteorological parameters, realizes accurate estimation of evaporation process under different coverage rates, and provides an efficient and practical calculation method for water resources management in arid areas.