新水沙情势下由于安庆下段鹅眉洲汊道中汊分流比变化存在不确定性，将影响左汊分流比变化和主航道条件的稳定性，同时左汊马窝一带涉水工程近期可能因汊道汇流段近岸河床淤积而影响工程功能发挥。本文结合平面二维水动力模型，采用最新原观资料跟踪分析了安庆下段鹅眉洲汊道的周期性演变特征、影响因素和水流特性，并对未来安庆河段治理方向提出了建议。成果表明：鹅眉洲汊道段近几十年来，除鹅眉洲分流点和右汊头部附近以及中汊局部河段外深泓摆动幅度整体较小，河势保持相对稳定状态。三峡蓄水运用后，鹅眉洲汊道左汊累计略有冲刷，右汊未来一段时间内将保持萎缩趋势。建议今后密切关注已有安庆河段治理工程的实施效果，必要时采取相关工程措施。

Under the new water and sediment regime, the uncertainty of the change of the bifurcation ratio of the middle branch of Emeizhou branch in the lower part of Anqing will affect the change of the bifurcation ratio of the left branch and the stability of the main channel condition.The function of water fording project in Mawo area of the left branch may be affected due to the siltation of the riverbed near the confluence of the branch in the near future. Integrated with Planar two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and based on the latest field observation data of water and sediment, this paper analyzes the periodic evolution characteristics, influencing factors and water flow characteristic of Emeizhou branch in the lower part of Anqing, and puts forward corresponding suggestions for the future management direction of Anqing reach. The results show that the swing-amplitude of the deep lake in the branch of Emeizhou is relatively small in recent decades, and the river regime remains relatively stable except for the branch point of Emeizhou, near the head of the right branch and the local reach of the middle branch. After the use of the Three Gorges water storage, the left branch of Emeizhou has been slightly washed, and the current of the right branch of Emeizhou will continue to maintain the trend of siltation shrinking in the near future, and the north and south branches of Emeizhou will continue to rise and fall each other. It is suggested to pay close attention to the implementation effect of the existing Anqing river reach control project, and take relevant measures when necessary.