建立健全水资源承载力监测机制是保障区域水安全的重要举措。以影响水资源承载力的复杂多要素作为研究视角,基于经济子系统、水资源子系统、水环境子系统和社会子系统,运用系统动力学方法构建广东省水资源承载力复合系统仿真模型,在验证模型一致性的基础上,提出零参数、节水型、产业结构优化型、环境保护型和综合型5种不同调控情景假设,分析各情景下广东省水资源承载力变动趋势。结果表明:零参数调控情景下水资源承载力变动相对稳定,节水型、产业结构优化型、环境保护型可对区域经济、水资源消耗、可用水资源量和生态环境产生局部改善,而综合调控型情景能够实现各水资源承载力评价指标的系统优化,满足协调推进水资源承载力提升的要求,可为推动节水型社会建设提供决策支持。

Establishing monitoring mechanism for water resources carrying capacity is a crucial approach of ensuring regional water security. Since water resources carrying capacity is affected by many complex factors, we built a multiplexed system simulation model based on system dynamics involving economy subsystem, water resources subsystem, water environment subsystem, and society subsystem for Guangdong Province as a case study. On the basis of consistency check, we analyzed the trends of water resources under five scenarios: zero parameter scenario, water-saving scenario, optimized industrial structure scenario, environmental protection scenario, and comprehensive scenario. Results suggest that under zero parameter scenario, water resources carrying capacity was relatively stable; while under water-saving scenario, optimized industrial structure scenario, and environmental protection scenario, the regional economy, water consumption, available water resources and ecological environment was improved in a partial scale; only in comprehensive scenario, all the evaluation indices of water resources carrying capacity can be coordinately optimized. The research provides support for the decision-making in the construction of water-saving society.