针对水利工程工程量清单计价模式下的水利工程投资风险进行了定量化的分析，介绍了风险基本理论，分析了工程量清单计价模式下面临的主要风险因素，引入“水晶球”风险分析软件，实现了对工程总投资的风险因素定量化分析，可预测各因素对投资的影响，并给出了应用实例，可为清单计价模式下的水利投资风险衡量提供参考思路。

A quantitative risk analysis was conducted for water project investment under the valuation models of project quantity bill. The risk theory was introduced to analyze the main risk factors. The Oracle Crystal Ball software was employed to carry out quantitative analysis on the  risk factors of total investment. The influence of each factor on the investment was predicted. This research was applied to engineering practice and provided a reference for the risk analysis of water projects.  