三峡水库提前蓄水的防洪风险与效益分析
收稿日期: 2011-12-28
修回日期: 2012-03-19
网络出版日期: 2013-01-16
基金资助
国家十一五科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC56B02 , 2009BAC56B04)
Flood Control Risk and Benefit of Impounding Water in Advance for the Three Gorges Reservoir
Received date: 2011-12-28
Revised date: 2012-03-19
Online published: 2013-01-16
李雨 , 郭生练 , 郭海晋 , 张洪刚 , 丁胜祥 . 三峡水库提前蓄水的防洪风险与效益分析[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2013 , 30(1) : 8 -14 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2013.01.002
On the basis of optimal operation and experimental water impoundment scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir, 6 different schemes of impounding water in advance were proposed. The flood control risk and comprehensive utilization benefits were calculated to determine the optimal impoundment schemes for the Three Gorges Reservoir. Two typical years of 1952 and 1964 were selected to obtain the seasonal design flood hydrographs. Results show that the best scheme is to impound water from 145m on September 1 to 160.0m on September 30 with a continuous and uniform process. The flood control risk ratio and risk loss ratio of seasonal design flood once in 1 000 years are 0.39% and 1.47% respectively, which are within controllable range; compared with the original scheme, the optimal schemes can generate 2.465 billion kWh extra hydropower and save 2.532 billion m3 flood water resource. The full storage ratio and average storage level at the end of impounding period increase to 95.35% and 174.8m, respectively.
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