关键词: 径流量, Budyko 假设, 气候变化, 人类活动, 堵河流域

Abstract: The hydrological response to climate change and human activities holds significant importance in the study of water resource management within a basin. In this study, we applied eight elasticity methods based on the Budyko framework to evaluate and quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on alterations in runoff patterns. This assessment was based on precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff data spanning from 1960 to 2016 in the Duhe River basin. The Pettitt test method was utilized to identify abrupt shifts, while the Mann-Kendall test method was employed to assess monotonic trends. The results revealed the following key findings: 1) Annual runoff exhibited a significant declining trend (p<0.05), with a change point identified in 1994. However, annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration showed an insignificant decreasing trend (p>0.1). 2) The hydrological response demonstrates a greater sensitivity to human activities than to climate change. Human activities contributed between 57.69% and 72.00%, whereas climate change contributed between 28.00% and 42.31%. 3) Changes in underlying surface characteristics, primarily attributed to human activities, were identified as the main cause of runoff attenuation. This suggests that increased forest and vegetation cover led to a reduction in runoff. The study underscores the dominant role of human activities in hydrological processes, providing crucial theoretical support for water resource management and integrated management within the Duhe River basin.

Key words: runoff, Budyko framework, climate change, human activities, Duhe River basin