中国气候分区ET0未来演变趋势预测及归因分析

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20220174

长江科学院院报 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (8): 44-50.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20220174

中国气候分区ET₀未来演变趋势预测及归因分析

郑荣伟¹, 张越², 王庆明³, 桂云鹏^3,4

1.浙江同济科技职业学院,杭州 311231;
2.水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100120;
3.中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038;
4.清华大学水利水电工程系,北京 100084

修回日期:2022-04-18 出版日期:2023-08-01 发布日期:2023-08-09
通讯作者: 王庆明(1987-),男,河北邯郸人,高级工程师,博士,从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:wangqm@iwhr.com
作者简介:郑荣伟(1988-),男,浙江衢州人,副教授,硕士,从事水土资源与环境研究。E-mail:zjzrw0910@126.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC0408804);浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF19E090003)

Prediction and Attribution Analysis of Future Evolution of ET₀ in Climatic Regions of China

ZHENG Rong-wei¹, ZHANG Yue², WANG Qing-ming³, GUI Yun-peng^3,4

1. Zhejiang Tongji Vocational College of Science and Technology,Hangzhou 311231, China;
2. General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100120, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;
4. Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Revised:2022-04-18 Online:2023-08-01 Published:2023-08-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 潜在蒸散发(ET₀)是反映流域水文-气象过程演变的一项关键指标,了解ET₀变化特征及其驱动要素的定量影响,对应对未来气候变化下的水循环变异具有重要意义。基于5种气候模拟预测集合数据,通过Peman-Monteith公式预测中国2030—2060年ET₀的时空变化趋势,并利用偏微分方法定量分析了驱动ET₀变化的各要素贡献。结果表明:在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,未来中国5大气候分区ET₀都呈现增加趋势,增加速率分别为1.32 mm/a和1.96 mm/a,亚热带气候区ET₀增速最快,而高原山地气候区增速最小,5个气候区在RCP8.5情景下ET₀增速都比RCP4.5情景下大。年内4个季节ET₀都呈现增加趋势,在RCP4.5情景下秋季ET₀增速最快(0.56 mm/a),在RCP8.5情景下夏季ET₀增速最快(0.63 mm/a)。未来ET₀变化主要受日最高气温、日最低气温以及实际水汽压的影响,其中日最高气温是未来ET₀变化的主导气象要素,实际水汽压次之,在年内4个季节ET₀变化的驱动要素分析中也发现了类似规律。研究成果可为中国未来水资源优化配置和农业灌溉管理提供参考依据。

关键词: 潜在蒸散发, 气候分区, Peman-Monteith公式, 变化特征, 驱动因子

Abstract: Potential evapotranspiration (ET₀ ) is a critical element that impacts the water cycle of a river basin. Understanding the characteristics of future changes in ET₀ and the quantitative impact of its driving factors is of great significance for coping with the variation of water cycle under future climate changes. Using the Peman-Monteith formula and ensemble data from five climate models, we estimated the temporal and spatial trends of China’s potential evapotranspiration from 2030 to 2060, and applied partial differential methods to quantify the contributions of various factors driving ET₀ changes. The findings reveal that under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the ET₀ of five major climate zones in China will exhibit an increasing trend in the future, with rates of increase reaching 1.32 mm/a and 1.96 mm/a, respectively. The fastest growth rate of ET₀ is observed in the subtropical climate zone, while in the plateau mountain climate zone, the growth rate is the smallest. The growth rate of ET₀ in the five climate zones under the RCP8.5 scenario is greater than that under the RCP4.5 scenario. Overall, ET₀ exhibits an increasing trend in all four seasons of the year. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the ET₀ growth rate is the greatest in autumn (0.56 mm/a), while under the RCP8.5 scenario, the largest growth rate is observed in summer (0.63 mm/a). Future changes in ET₀ are primarily affected by daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as actual water vapor pressure. Daily maximum temperature is the dominant meteorological element governing the magnitude of ET₀ changes, followed by actual water vapor pressure. Similar patterns were found in the analysis of the driving factors of ET₀ changes in all four seasons. The research findiugs provide reference for optimal allocation of water resources and agricultural irragation management in future.

Key words: potential evapotranspiration, climatic regions, Peman-Monteith formula, change characteristics, driving factors

中图分类号:

郑荣伟, 张越, 王庆明, 桂云鹏. 中国气候分区ET₀未来演变趋势预测及归因分析[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2023, 40(8): 44-50.

ZHENG Rong-wei, ZHANG Yue, WANG Qing-ming, GUI Yun-peng. Prediction and Attribution Analysis of Future Evolution of ET₀ in Climatic Regions of China[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2023, 40(8): 44-50.

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中国气候分区ET₀未来演变趋势预测及归因分析

Prediction and Attribution Analysis of Future Evolution of ET₀ in Climatic Regions of China

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