长江科学院院报 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 31-36.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20211281

• 水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于RBF-SWAT的气候变化下汉江上游流域径流预测及特征分析

王立1, 翟文亮2, 张爵宏2,3, 曹慧群2, 唐见2   

  1. 1.南水北调中线水源有限责任公司,湖北 丹江口 442700;
    2.长江科学院 流域水环境研究所,武汉 430010;
    3.河海大学 水文与水资源学院,南京 210024
  • 收稿日期:2021-11-29 修回日期:2022-01-15 出版日期:2023-04-01 发布日期:2023-04-26
  • 通讯作者: 翟文亮(1990-),男,河南新乡人,工程师,硕士,主要从事水文水资源研究工作。E-mail:857658774@qq.com
  • 作者简介:王 立(1964-),男,四川苍溪人,高级工程师,硕士,主要从事水利工程建设管理工作。E-mail:wlnsbd@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    南水北调中线水源有限责任公司项目

Impact of Future Climate Change on Runoff in the Upper Hanjiang River Basin Based on RBF-SWAT

WANG Li1, ZHAI Wen-liang2, ZHANG Jue-hong2,3, CAO Hui-qun2, TANG Jian2   

  1. 1. South to North Water Transfer Middle Route Water Source Co., Ltd., Danjiangkou 442700,China;
    2. Basin Water Environment Department, Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010, China;
    3. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210024,China
  • Received:2021-11-29 Revised:2022-01-15 Published:2023-04-01 Online:2023-04-26

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摘要： 为研究气候变化下汉江上游流域的径流响应,基于RBF神经网络降尺度模型,利用2020—2099年CanESM2模式下RCP8.5(高温室气体排放)和RCP2.6(低温室气体排放)两种气候情景,生成未来气温与降水数据;耦合SWAT水文模型,模拟分析流域2020—2099年径流变化对不同气候情景的响应特征。结果表明,汉江上游年径流量均呈不明显增加趋势,RCP8.5情景下的径流增加趋势比RCP2.6情景稍小,径流量年内分配与基准期大致相同,两种情景下汛期径流量稍有减小,可能是降尺度模型生成的降水量极大值偏小导致的。研究结果可为汉江流域水文气象综合管理提供一定的科学依据。

关键词: 气候变化, 径流变化, SWAT, RBF, 降尺度模型, 汉江上游流域

Abstract: To study the runoff response of the upper Hanjiang River basin under future climate change,a downscaling model based on the RBF (Radial Basis Function) neural network and the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model are coupled. The RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenario data under the CanESM2 model from 2020 to 2099 are downscaled to each station in the basin to generate future climate elements(temperature and precipitation) and simulate the runoff response of the basin under future climate change. Results unveil that the runoff in the upper Hanjiang River will increase slightly in the future,with a slightly smaller increase in runoff in the RCP8.5 scenario than that in the RCP2.6 scenario. The annual runoff distribution in both scenarios is roughly the same with that in the base period. In both scenarios,runoff in flood season reduces slightly possibly because of a smaller maximum precipitation generated by the downscaling model. The research results provide a scientific basis for the comprehensive management in the Hanjiang River Basin.

Key words: climatic change, runoff change, SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) , RBF(Radial Basis Function), statistical downscaling model, upper Hanjiang River basin

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