关键词: 地下水供水量, 地区生产总值, 脱钩, 驱动因素, 空间自相关

Abstract: Studying the decoupling relationship between groundwater supply and GDP in provinces of China is of great significance for optimizing and adjusting the water supply structure and strengthening the protection and restoration of groundwater resources in the future. Based on the data of water supply,GDP and population of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020,we investigated the decoupling between groundwater supply and GDP and the main driving factors of decoupling in the past two decades via decoupling analysis,driving effect analysis and spatial correlation analysis,and further discussed the spatial aggregation characteristics of each driving factor at provincial scale. The results manifest that the relationship between groundwater supply and economic development in China has gradually evolved from weak decoupling to strong decoupling,and the year 2013 is the dividing point from weak decoupling to strong decoupling. The increase of water use efficiency is the main factor driving the decrease of groundwater supply,while the rising of per capita GDP is the main factor driving the increase of groundwater supply. Provinces in China mainly experienced weak decoupling in the period from “The Tenth Five-Year Plan” to “The Eleventh Five-Year Plan”,while from “The Twelfth Five-Year Plan” to “The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”,provinces with strong decoupling were dominant. From “The Tenth Five-Year Plan” to “The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”,the main factors influencing decoupling state gradually evolved from economic level to water use efficiency and water supply structure;at the end of “The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”,the contribution rate of each driving factor showed H-H aggregation or L-L aggregation characteristics.

Key words: groundwater supply, GDP, decoupling, driving factor, spatial autocorrelation