长江科学院院报 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (7): 75-81.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20191535

• 工程安全与灾害防治 • 上一篇    下一篇

水利工程高危作业突发事件演化机理尖点突变模型研究

江新1,2, 罗东立1,2, 李炜1,2, 陈瑶1,2, 吴静涵1,2, 晋良海1,2   

  1. 1.三峡大学 水利与环境学院,湖北 宜昌 443002 ;
    2.三峡大学 湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室,湖北 宜昌 443002
  • 收稿日期:2019-12-17 出版日期:2020-07-01 发布日期:2020-08-06
  • 通讯作者: 罗东立(1996-),男,湖北宜昌人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为水电工程项目管理(安全管理)。E-mail:ldlwangyi@126.com
  • 作者简介:江 新(1966-),男,安徽寿县人,教授,硕士,主要从事工程项目群管理、系统决策理论及安全评价等方面的研究。E-mail:1003576809@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(51878385)

Cusp Catastrophe Model of the Evolution Mechanism of High-risk Operations in Water Conservancy Projects

JIANG Xin1,2, LUO Dong-li1,2, LI Wei1,2, CHEN Yao1,2, WU Jing-han1,2, JIN Liang-hai1,2   

  1. 1. College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China;
    2. Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China
  • Received:2019-12-17 Online:2020-07-01 Published:2020-08-06

摘要: 为减少水利工程高危作业突发事件形成,控制事件影响,在分析高危作业施工安全风险影响因素的基础上,得出突发事件演化机理图;结合突变理论,将内在动因和外在诱因作为控制变量、施工安全动态作为状态变量,构建水利工程高危作业突发事件尖点突变模型。通过模型进一步分析事件形成过程,阐述分裂因子和正则因子在突发事件前、后的作用及事件演化轨迹,同时总结出安全作业(2种)、外因隐患作业、内因隐患作业、危险作业(2种)共6种施工安全状态,进而提出突发事件的预防措施、控制措施、应急措施。研究表明:作业人员素质的提升是避免突发事件形成的关键因素,管理人员的行为在事件发生前后极具影响力。该模型研究对水利工程领域中的高危作业安全保障作出了进一步的理论探索。

关键词: 水利工程, 高危作业, 突发事件, 演化机理, 尖点突变模型, 管控措施

Abstract: The aim of this research is to mitigate emergencies in high-risk operation of water conservancy projects and to control the impact of emergency events.First of all,the diagram of evolution mechanism of emergency is obtained via analyzing the influencing factors of safety risks in high-risk operations.The cusp catastrophe model for high-risk operation emergency of water conservancy projects is then established based on the catastrophe theory with internal motivation and external incentives as control variables and construction safety dynamics as state variable. The formation process of emergency event is examined using the model, and the role of splitting factors and regular factors before and after emergencies and the trajectory of event evolution are expounded.Moreover,six safe statuses,inclusive of safe operations(two types), external hazard-hidden operations, internal hazard-hidden operations, and dangerous operations(two types),are summarized;corresponding preventive measures, control measures,and emergency measures are put forward.The research results suggest that enhancing the quality of workers is a key factor in avoiding emergencies, and the behavior of managers is extremely influential before and after the events. The present model is a further theoretical attempt for the safety guarantee of high-risk operations in hydraulic engineering.

Key words: hydro-project, high-risk operation, emergencies, evolution mechanism, cusp catastrophe model, management and control measures

中图分类号: