关键词: 降水量, 气温, 额尔齐斯河流域, 水文统计方法, 复Morlet小波分析, R/S分析法

Abstract: According to monthly precipitation data from three meteorological stations (Fuyun, Aletai, and Habahe)
in the Irtysh River Basin from 1962 to 2013, we employed Mann-Kendall method, Morlet wavelet analysis method, R/S analysis method, and other hydrological statistical method to analyze the characteristics and trends of precipitation variation at these stations. Results suggest that the annual precipitations at these stations all present a trend of increase, with the trend rate of 17.91mm/10a, 17.47mm/10a, and 17.37mm/10a respectively. The annual precipitation series have significant periodic variation with main oscillation cycle of 22a, 18a, 22a and characteristic time scales of alternative wet-dry years. The Hurst values indicate that the trend of increase in precipitation at these three stations will continue in the future, and the largest increment of precipitation is at Fuyun station, followed by Aletai and Habahe.

Key words: precipitation, Temperature, Irtysh River Basin, hydrological statistical method, Morlet wavelet analysis method, R/S analysis method