关键词: 河流岸线, 开发利用风险评估, 模糊综合评判, 灰色聚类分析, 空间分析

Abstract: The assessment of risks associated with the development and utilization of river shorelines is the prerequisite and foundation of adopting effective shoreline management and protection measures and conserving river health. A comprehensive risk assessment index system comprising four main aspects including water quality, ecology, society, and management has been developed. Analytic hierarchy-entropy weight is employed to determine index combinatorial weight. The grey cluster analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are improved and combined to establish a risk assessment model, with geostatistical analysis being utilized to establish risk spatial analysis model. A case study of the Nanjing section of the Yangtze River reveals a low overall risk level, despite some high risk levels at local shoreline segments mainly in the Jiangning, Qixia and Luhe districts. Risk changes are resulted from a combination of natural factors and human activities.

Key words: river shoreline, risk assessment of development and utilization, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, grey cluster analysis, spatial analysis