基于人工神经网络模式识别理论和方法，依据水资源承载能力评价指标体系和标准，构建BP神经网络水资源承载能力评价模型，对区域不同规划水平年不同保证率情景下的水资源承载能力进行评价分析。结果表明：①文山州及各县级行政区域的水资源承载能力在不同水平年不同保证率情景下均未达到Ⅰ级标准，表明各评价区域水资源仍有一定的开发利用潜力。②BP神经网络模型的评价结果符合区域实际，且评价网络稳定，结果直观明了，是一种可以运用的区域水资源承载能力综合评价方法。

 A BP neural network model for the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is established in line with pattern recognition of neural network as well as the evaluation indexes and criteria. The model aims to evaluate and analyze the carrying capacity of water resources in different target years with different reliabilities. It's found that the carrying capacity of water resources neither in Wenshan prefecture nor its administrative counties reaches the I-level, which suggests that the water resources in these regions are still capable of being exploited. The evaluation results are clear, and are consistent with the reality in these regions. It could be applied to the comprehensive evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity.