关键词: 湖北省, 水资源短缺, 层次分析法, 模糊数学法, 风险评价

Abstract: Hubei Province, as a water-abundant area, still has the risk of water shortage. To assess the risk of water shortage in Hubei province, we construct a water shortage risk assessment index system on the basis of theoretical methods. The index weights are calculated by using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), and the index values are converted to risk membership degree values through fuzzy evaluation method. Finally, the index weights and values are combined to calculate the weighted sum as the risk assessment index of water shortage. Evaluation results show that: the average water shortage risk index of Hubei Province is 5.24, indicating a moderate risk; the risk indexes of northwest Hubei and southeast Hubei are 5.38 and 5.34 respectively, moderate risk as well; and the risk index of southwest Hubei is 4.10, close to a low risk; the risk index of Jianghan Plain is up to 5.64 at the maximum, which suggests a high risk.

Key words: Hubei Province, water shortage, AHP, fuzzy mathematical method,  risk assessment