可靠性分析是边坡工程研究的热点之一，但目前基于强度折减方法的边坡可靠度分析研究较少，文章主要是在有限差分强度折减法基础上融合蒙特卡洛思想进行边坡可靠性分析。其研究思路为：首先详细概述了边坡可靠性分析原理及边坡可靠度分析统计模型；其次，介绍了有限差分强度折减法及蒙特卡洛思想，并将蒙特卡洛思想引入边坡有限差分强度折减模型，利用 FLAC3D 内置 fish 语言编制了相应计算程序，使此模型数值计算得以实现；最后，对某岩体力学参数 ( 粘聚力、内摩擦角 ) 服从正态概率分布的简单边坡进行了安全系数计算，且对计算结果进行了统计分析、可靠性评价。其研究方法将为工程岩体边坡可靠性分析提供一定参考价值。

Reliability analysis is one of the hot topics in the research of slope engineering. The authors mainly analyzed slope reliability based on finite-difference strength-reduction method considering the thought of Monte Carlo method. The principle and statistical model of slope reliability analysis are elaborated at first. Second, the finite-difference strength-reduction method and the thought of Monte Carlo method are summarized, then the thought of Monte Carlo method is introduced into the finite-difference strength-reduction model. Based on this, numerical calculation of the model was realized and the corresponding calculation program was developed by FISH language built in FLAC3D. Finally, safety factor of a slope, whose rock mass mechanical parameter followed normal probability distribution, is calculated. The calculation results were analyzed statistically and its reliability is evaluated.