到目前为止还没有人对跨流域调水影响区供水风险进行敏感性分析，以南水北调中线为例，对其影响区——汉江中下游干流区供水风险进行了敏感性分析。通过风险源识别辨析了汉江中下游干流区供水的主要影响因素，并采用随机模拟、长序列水库调算、正交试验和极差分析方法，分析计算了汉江中下游干流区供水风险对各主要影响因素的敏感性。结果表明在来水量、中下游需水量、外调水量3个主要影响因素中，汉江中下游干流区水资源系统的缺水风险指数对中下游需水量的敏感性最大，其次是来水量，最后才是外调水量。

Sensitivity analysis for water supply risk in the area  influenced by interbasin water transfer is presented in the paper. Taking the influenced area of the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, which is also known as the main stream area of middle and lower Hanjiang River, the authors investigate the risk source of water supply in the source region of the Project and its three major influencing factors as water inflow, water demand, and water transfer. Stochastic simulation, long-sequence reservoir routing, orthogonal test, and  analysis of  range are employed to calculate the sensitivities of water supply risk to the three influencing factors. The result demonstrates that the risk index of water shortage in the area is most sensitive to the water demand of the middle and lower reaches, followed by the water inflow into Danjiangkou reservoir and the water storage transferred through the middle route of the Project.