对历史时期旱涝灾害的重建及其影响研究是当前探求气候事件发生规律的热点之一，而对周期的计算和对突变点的检测又是探求规律的重要手段。基于海河流域540a旱涝等级资料，运用谱功率分析、小波分析、指数分析和Mann-Kendall法等方法分别对海河流域水旱发生周期和突变点进行计算分析。结论显示：海河流域水旱灾害在历史上分别存在10a，23a，37a和75a左右的主导周期；在17至18世纪间，流域经历了旱型－涝型的转变。

The simulation analysis on floods and droughts and research on their influences are hot topics in the study on regularity of climate events. The calculation of flood and drought periods and the detection of sudden changes are important approaches in exploring the regularity. Based on the historical data of flood-drought grades in the past 540 years, the flood and drought periods and the sudden changes are calculated by means of power spectrum, wavelet analysis, index analysis and Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that the floods and droughts of Haihe river basin took predominance for 10, 23, 37, and 75 years in the history with a transformation from drought to flood in the 17th to the 18th century.