利用鄱阳湖流域的 13 个国家气象站 1961-2001 年的实测降水数据和 NCEP 再分析数据，建立了鄱阳湖流域降水的统计降尺度模型；在 IPCC 2000 年排放情景特别报告（ SRES ）中的A2和B2 排放情景下，应用 HadCM3 的输出数据，预测鄱阳湖流域未来3个时段（2010-2039 年、 2040-2069 年、 2070-2099 年）的降水变化情况。结果表明：鄱阳湖流域大部分区域的降水量有所增加，在本世纪末最大可能增加 11.15% 。

The observed precipitation series from thirteen national weather stations during 1961 to 2001 and NCEP reanalysis data were used to establish a statistical downscaling model in the Poyang Lake basin. The output data of HadCM3 under A2 and B2 scenarios were inputted to automatically statistical downscaling model to predict the future precipitation change during 2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099 periods. The results show that the precipitation will increase in the most area of the Poyang Lake basin, and maximum increase rate can reach 11.15% in the end of this century.