针对当前水库洪水分期调度方法存在的问题，提出基于概率组合的水库洪水分期调度方法，具体给出水库防洪标准的等价表达式，并探讨在不降低水库防洪标准的前提下确定水库分期汛限水位。一水库分三期调度的实例分析结果表明，水库汛末汛限水位最高可提高1.8 m，从而将增加水库综合效益。该方法可为指导已建水库工程的防洪优化调度提供参考。

In order to overcome the problem existing in reservoir stage operation at present, a new method was proposed on the basis of probability combination principle in probability theory, the equivalent formulation of the reservoir flood control standard was given specifically, and the flood control water level of each stage was deter ? mined by the condition that the reservoir flood control standard is not reduced. Analyzed and calculated results obtained by? the example adopting 3-stage regulating flood indicate that the water level for flood control in the end of the flood season can be raised by? 1.80m most greatly, as a result, the multipurpose effectiveness of the reservoir will be increased greatly. The method can provide the reference for flood control optimal operation of the built reservoir.