鉴于我国在溃坝生命损失评价方面尚未系统开展研究的现状，提出了一种基于模糊物元与指数平滑法相结合的估算方法。详细分析了模糊物元与指数平滑法相结合进行估算的原理及步骤。根据我国已溃决大坝的历史资料，并采用留一法交互校验，结果表明该估算方法具有一定的精度。

Presently, there are no systematic researches on estimating loss-of-life caused by dam break in China. On the basis of the combination of fuzzy matter-element and exponential smoothing algorithm, a new estimation method is put forward in the paper. The principle and procedure on estimating the loss-of-life based on the combination of fuzzy matter-element and exponential smoothing algorithm are analyzed in detail. According to the historical data of broken dams in China and by using leaving one out cross validation, the result shows accuracy of the estimation method.