为合理配置水资源、促进水资源的可持续利用，开展水资源量的预测预报研究是一项重要的基础支撑工作。以汉江流域为实例，基于流域水文分析软件MIKEBASIN进行子流域划分，采用降雨径流模型(NAM)来模拟各分区降雨径流过程，初步构建了汉江流域水量预测模型系统，并对水量模型的各关键技术重点展开研究。研究果表明，通过细化模型分区、提高NAM模型参数率定精度、改进水库处理方法等工作，可以明显提高水量模型的模拟预测精度。

Research on water resource forecasting and predicti on is the main base work for water resources optimum allocation and sustainable utilization. The water resource prediction model over Hanjiang River basin was built based on Mike Basin program, in which the rainfall and runoff processes of every subbasin were simulated by the NAM model. And some key elements of the model were researched in detail. The result indicated that by means of refining model dividing, enhancing the accuracy of parameter calibration, and promoting the handling way to the reservoir, the accuracy of the forecasting model can be obviously enhanced.