长江科学院院报 ›› 2007, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (4): 19-22.

• 水资源与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

面向可持续利用的武汉市水资源优化配置

 康 玲, 张翠萍, 姜铁兵, 王学立   

  • 出版日期:2007-08-01 发布日期:2012-03-05

Sustainable Utilization Oriented Optimal Allocation toWater Resources in Wuhan City

 KANG   Ling, ZHANG  Cui-Ping, JIANG  Tie-Bing, WANG  Xue-Li   

  • Online:2007-08-01 Published:2012-03-05

摘要: 基于"时间和空间耦合"的完整意义上的可持续理论,系统分析了面向可持续利用的水资源优化配置的内涵和原则,并结合武汉市水资源现状与发展趋势,构建了优化配置模型,运用逐步宽容约束法求解模型。以2010年为代表年,按95%的保证率对武汉市水资源优化配置的途径和方法进行了探索。配置结果表明:在P=95%的特别干旱年,全市农业用水保证率大于90%,高增?基本方案为93.07%,高增-节水方案为96.56%,仅江夏、黄陂出现农业缺水;全市第三产业较缺水,高增?基本方案下用水保证率为85.39%,高增-节水方案下用水保证率为93.03%;其它部门用水保证率均达到100%。与常规配置下的水资源供需预测值相比,较大程度提高了用水保证率,验证了模型的科学性和实用性。

Abstract: On the basis of the sustainable development theory of time-and-space coupling, the connotations and principles of the sustainable utilization oriented optimal allocation of water resources are analyzed systematically. In combination with the current status and the utilization trend ofwater resources in Wuhan city, the model of the optimal allocation is constituted. The methods of step by step toleration obligation and genetic algorithm are used in solving the model, the approaches and the methods of the water resources optimal allocation are explored with a guaranteed ratio of about 95% in the level year 2010 of Wuhan. The results show that: in the extremely dry year of 95% probability, the agricultural water guaranteed ratio of the whole city exceeds 90%, and in high economic growth rate-fundamental scheme the guaranteed ratio reaches 93.07%, the high economic growth rate-water savingscheme has a guaranteed ratio equal to 96.56%with only lack of agricultural water in Jiangxia and Huangpi districts; and the third industry is relatively short of water with a 85.39%guaranteed ratio in high economic growth rate-fundamental scheme and a 93.03%guaranteed ratio in the high economic growth rate-water saving scheme, while all the guaranteed ratios of other water required sections get to 100%. Compared with the forecasted values in the routine allocation, the provided model may improve the guaranteed ratio of water usage to a great extent.