在选取崩岸各影响因素的基础上，应用模糊决策理论形成的模糊一致矩阵对崩岸危险程度进行了评价，以综合决策优度值的形式表征河段崩岸的危险程度，对1998年9月长江石首河段崩岸危险性进行了量化评价。模糊决策结果表明，石首北门口河段发生崩岸的危险程度大于其他河段，同年10月发生在北门口的崩岸证明了评价结果的正确性，同时也说明了将模糊决策理论应用于崩岸危险性评价是可行和可信的，对崩岸影响因素选取基本合理。

On the basis of selecting the affecting factors, a fuzzy consistent matrix was formed by using fuzzy decision －making theory and the dangerous extent was quantified with integrated decision －making optimum value which was generated from the fuzzy consistent matrix. As an example, the sections of Shishou reaches whose parameters weremeasured in September, 1998, were quantitatively evaluated using the above method and the result showed that the bank － failure dangerous extent of Beimenkou section is higher than any other sections. The fact that the ba
nk section failed in October, 1998, proved that the evaluation result is correct， and that the method advanced in this paper is feasible and creditable. 