采用FLUVIAL-12模型，进行了三峡水库运用60a长 江下荆江藕池口至监利河段冲淤变化预测计算，并讨论了FLUVIAL-12模型的适用性。计算分析表明：三峡水库运用后，藕池口至监利河段呈现先微淤、后冲刷、冲刷平衡后再缓慢回淤的冲淤过程和规律，最大冲刷量7.1～11.2亿t，出现在水库运用55a左右；监利、调关、石首3站枯水流量5 000 m3/s时水位下降3.13～4.71 m，洪水流量30 000 m3/s时水位下降0.42～2.77 m。

Based on the imported FLUVIAL-12 Model, The developing tendencies for the Ouchikou-Jianli reach of the typical Lower Jingjiang River in regard to river channel aggradation and degradation, cross - sections configuration and feature stages within 60 - year operation of the Three Gorges Project (TGP) have been predicted and analyzed by calculations. Results show that, within the 60-year TGP operation, the Ouchikou-Jianli reach will experience 4 sequent fluvial periods of subtle deposition, substantial degradation, transient equilibrium, and slow recovery, the maximum erosion amount is (7.1 - 11.2) 108t emerging around the fifty - fifth year, and the maximum stage lowering is 3.13-4.71 m under discharge 5 000 m3/s and 0.42-2.77 m under discharge 30 000 m3/s respectively.