以重庆市1996—2011年时间序列数据为基础，采用Eviews 6.0软件，运用计量经济学分析方法研究农用化肥、农膜和农药单位播种面积施用量与农业经济增长变量间的关系，并检验其是否符合环境库兹涅茨曲线特征。结果表明:单位播种面积农用化肥、农膜、农药的施用量与农业经济增长水平存在显著的“倒U型”关系，具有“EKC”假设图形的趋势特征，并以2009年为拐点；人均大农业产值比人均种植业产值作为农业经济增长变量指标的拟合模拟效果要好。研究揭示了在欠发达岩溶山区，应走科学发展之路，积极转变经济发展方式，大力调整产业结构，大力发展生态循环农业、特色农业，促进农用化肥、农膜“减量化”。
Abstract
The relationship between economic growth indicator and non-point source(NPS) pollution,inclusive of agricultural fertilizer,farming film and pesticide amounts per unit sown area,was researched using software Eviews 6.0 by econometric analysis method. The obtained relationship was verified by the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) model. The time series data of Chongqing from 1996 to 2011 were selected as an illustration example. Results show that the curve of economic growth vs. the amount of fertilizer,farming film and pesticide per unit sown area has an apparent reverse U-shape,with 2009 as the turning point,displaying EKC features. Moreover,the fitting result by using per capita agricultural output value as the agricultural economic growth indicator is better than that using per capita planting industry output value. This research reveals that in less developed Karst mountainous area,the economic growth pattern should be transformed into scientific development. Ecological and recycling agriculture should be enhanced to reduce the amount of agricultural fertilizer,farming film and pesticide.
关键词
农业非点源污染源 /
农业经济增长 /
环境库兹涅茨曲线 /
产业结构调整
Key words
agricultural NPS pollution /
agricultural economic growth /
Environmental Kuznets Curve /
adjustment of industrial structure
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