大型水库建设运行对干旱区流域水文情势的影响评估

陈佳龙, 井沛然, 范琳琳, 余蕾, 魏琛琛, 李亚龙

长江科学院院报 ›› 0

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长江科学院院报 ›› 0 DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20260600

大型水库建设运行对干旱区流域水文情势的影响评估

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Regulation Effects of Large Reservoir Construction on Hydrological Regime in Arid Regions

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摘要

评估大型水库建设运行对干旱区流域水文情势的影响对水资源安全与生态修复意义重大。本研究以阿克苏河流域为研究对象,构建SWAT与水库优化调度耦合模型,基于水文改变指标(IHA)体系,系统剖析大石峡水库蓄水前后水文过程的演变特征。结果表明,水库运行导致春夏季流量呈现系统性锐减,10月洪峰流量削减幅度达59.20%;蓄水阶段偏枯年份下,1日最小流量较建设前提升642%,而90日最小流量则下降20.2%,反映出水库削峰能力随调节历时延长而逐步衰减;年最小流量发生日期推迟30~104日,高/低脉冲由高频短促型转变为低频长时型,日流量变化率被显著压制,降幅介于74%~86%;上述调控效应沿河道呈衰减趋势,至出口断面时已被区间支流天然过程大幅稀释。本研究系统地揭示了干旱区大型水库年内再分配、历时依赖性与空间衰减性等水文情势改造规律,可为制定生态调度策略提供量化依据。

Abstract

[Objectives] Large reservoirs in arid regions profoundly alter downstream flow regimes, yet systematic assessments across different operational stages, hydrological year types, and spatial scales remain limited. This study aims to quantify the regulation effects of the Dashixia Reservoir on the hydrological regime of the Aksu River Basin and to reveal the underlying mechanisms of intra-annual redistribution, time‑scale dependence, and spatial attenuation. [Methods] A coupled SWAT-optimization modeling framework was established for the Aksu River Basin. The SWAT model, calibrated and validated using daily streamflow data (2012-2025) at the basin outlet, achieved satisfactory performance (calibration: R2 = 0.78, NSE = 0.77; validation: R2 = 0.72, NSE = 0.71). A multi-objective optimization model, incorporating flood control, hydropower generation, and water supply objectives, was employed to simulate reservoir outflow hydrographs in the absence of historical operation records. Two scenarios (without and. with reservoir), three hydrological year types (25% wet, 50% normal, 75% dry), four downstream sections, and two operational stages (impoundment and stable operation) were analyzed. The Relative Change Rate (RCR) was adopted to quantify alterations across 33 Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). [Results] Reservoir operation fundamentally restructured the intra-annual flow distribution: spring-summer (January-September) mean flows decreased by 62.6%, while November-December flows increased by up to 74.6%; the January-April mean flows converged from a natural range of 46.33-60.28 m3/s to approximately 23.23 m3/s after impoundment. A distinct time-scale dependence was identified: the 1-day minimum flow increased by 642% in dry years (from 4.84 to 35.92 m3/s), yet the 90-day minimum decreased by 20.2% (from 36.46 to 29.09 m3/s); flood peak reduction efficiency dropped from 59% (1-day maximum) to 19.6% (90-day maximum). The annual minimum flow occurrence was delayed by 30-104 days, with dry years experiencing the greatest delays (94-104 days). High and low pulse characteristics shifted from frequent, short pulses to rare, long pulses: in dry years, low pulse frequency decreased by 87.5% (from 16 to 2 events) while mean pulse duration increased by 698% (from 5.7 to 45.5 days). Daily flow rise and fall rates were suppressed by 74%-86%, and reversal frequency declined by 66%-72%. All reservoir-induced effects decayed exponentially downstream: near-dam peak reduction of 59% dropped to 7.9% at the basin outlet, and low pulse duration increase fell from 698% to 17%; the reservoir signal was largely diluted by unregulated tributary inflows contributing approximately 50% of outlet discharge. [Conclusions] The Dashixia Reservoir homogenizes the Aksu River flow regime through three systematic patterns: (i) intra-annual redistribution, shifting spring-summer runoff to autumn-winter and converting the natural summer flood and winter drought rhythm into an artificial summer drought and winter flood pattern; (ii) time-scale dependence, with positive effects on one to three day extreme minima but negative effects on seven to ninety day sustained low flows, along with stronger flood reduction for short durations than for long-duration flood volumes; and (iii) spatial attenuation, wherein reservoir effects decline exponentially downstream and are largely overwhelmed by unregulated tributary inflows. While the reservoir effectively prevents short-term river drying and reduces flood peaks, it simultaneously introduces prolonged low-flow stress, phenological mismatches, and loss of ecological disturbance functions. These findings provide quantitative evidence for developing ecologically informed reservoir operation strategies in arid regions.

关键词

大石峡水库 / 优化调度 / IHA指标体系 / SWAT模型 / 阿克苏河流域

Key words

dashixia reservoir / optimal operation / IHA / SWAT model / Aksu River basin

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导出引用
陈佳龙, 井沛然, 范琳琳, 等. 大型水库建设运行对干旱区流域水文情势的影响评估[J]. 长江科学院院报. 0 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20260600
CHEN Jia-long, JING Pei-ran, FAN Lin-lin, et al. Regulation Effects of Large Reservoir Construction on Hydrological Regime in Arid Regions[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 0 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20260600
中图分类号: TV697.2+5   

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基金

塔里木河流域管理局科研项目(TGJAKSJJG-2025KYXM0002)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2026359/NY)
国家自然科学基金项目(42577570)
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2026A1515012103)

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