基于DPSIRM模型的汉江流域水环境风险动态评估

郑婷予; 吕泓德; 于欣鑫; 薛玉华; 沈晓梅; 姜明栋

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20260530

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长江科学院院报 ›› 0 DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20260530

基于DPSIRM模型的汉江流域水环境风险动态评估

郑婷予 ¹^,² ,
吕泓德 ¹^,² ,
于欣鑫 ³ ,
薛玉华 ¹^,⁴ ,
沈晓梅 ⁴ ,
姜明栋 ¹^,²^,⁵

作者信息 +

Dynamic Assessment of Water Environmental Risk in the Hanjiang River Basin Based on the DPSIRM Model

ZHENG Ting-yu ¹^,² ,
LYU Hong-de ¹^,² ,
YU Xin-xin ³ ,
XUE Yu-hua ¹^,⁴ ,
SHEN Xiao-mei ⁴ ,
JIANG Ming-dong ¹^,²^,⁵

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

汉江流域作为南水北调中线工程核心水源区，探明其水环境风险因果传导路径与管理响应特征是实现流域精细治理的基础。本文构建“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理”（DPSIRM）全链条评估框架，测度2010-2024年汉江流域8市水环境风险指数，运用核密度估计与格兰杰因果检验探究其时空演化规律与内部传导机制。结果表明：①研究期内流域风险整体显著下降，均值由0.423降至0.293，区域差异持续缩小。②环境压力（P）缓解是风险下降的主因，但表征管理缺位的管理（M）指数仍呈上升趋势，反映出管理供给滞后于治理需求的系统性矛盾。③系统内部存在“压力-状态-影响”顺次传导关系，管理对改善环境状态与缓解负面影响表现出持续的跨期调控作用，而对驱动力与响应子系统的调控则存在2期时滞。研究结论可为汉江流域环境系统治理与风险动态防控提供实证支撑。

Abstract

As the core water source area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, identifying the causal transmission pathways and management response characteristics of water environmental risks in the Hanjiang River Basin is fundamental to achieving refined watershed governance. This study constructs a full-chain “Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response-Management” (DPSIRM) evaluation framework to measure the water environmental risk indices of eight cities in the Hanjiang River Basin from 2010 to 2024, and utilizes kernel density estimation and Granger causality tests to explore their spatiotemporal evolution patterns and internal transmission mechanisms. The results indicate that: ① During the study period, the overall risk in the basin exhibited a significant downward trend, with the average value decreasing from 0.423 to 0.293, and regional disparities continuously narrowing. ② The alleviation of environmental pressure (P) was the primary cause of risk reduction, but the management (M) index-indicating institutional gaps-maintained an upward trend, reflecting a systemic contradiction where the supply of management elements lags behind governance demands. ③ A sequential transmission relationship of "Pressure-State-Impact" exists within the system, while management exhibits a sustained cross-period regulatory effect on improving environmental state and alleviating negative impacts, whereas its regulatory efficacy on the Driving Force and Response subsystems demonstrates a two-period time lag. The research conclusions provide empirical support for systematic environmental governance and dynamic risk prevention and control in the Hanjiang River Basin.

导出引用

郑婷予, 吕泓德, 于欣鑫, 等. 基于DPSIRM模型的汉江流域水环境风险动态评估[J]. 长江科学院院报. 0 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20260530

ZHENG Ting-yu, LYU Hong-de, YU Xin-xin, et al. Dynamic Assessment of Water Environmental Risk in the Hanjiang River Basin Based on the DPSIRM Model[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 0 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20260530

中图分类号： X821;F205

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