PDF(2500 KB)
基于“H-E-V-R”框架的城市洪涝综合风险评估
刘艳丽, 唐清华, 闫文慧, 关铁生, 金君良, 罗小亮, 王国庆, 刘翠善
长江科学院院报 ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6) : 1-9.
PDF(2500 KB)
PDF(2500 KB)
基于“H-E-V-R”框架的城市洪涝综合风险评估
Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Urban Flood Based on H-E-V-R Framework
为提升城市洪涝风险评估结果的可靠性,以杭州市未来科技城为研究区,利用MIKE模型开展了1、10、50 a重现期下的内涝情景模拟;在传统静态暴露性指标基础上,引入分时段交通拥堵数据,结合层次分析法(AHP)构建了基于危险性-暴露性-脆弱性-防灾减灾能力(H-E-V-R)共4个维度8个指标的洪涝综合风险评估体系。研究结果表明:①验证结果显示,构建的基于MIKE FLOOD的一维地下管网与二维地表耦合水动力模型在内涝点淹没水深的模拟误差控制在5%以内,且综合径流系数的计算误差均<15%,模型模拟精度合格,能较好地反映研究区洪水演进特征;②随着设计暴雨重现期增大,淹没水深和淹没时间均增大,内涝危险性也显著增大,综合洪涝风险也整体增大;③研究区不同代表时段的交通暴露度存在差异,早高峰时段交通暴露度极值更高,而晚高峰高暴露度路段的空间分布更为广泛;④50 a重现期设计暴雨下,研究区南部区域风险整体较低,万景村委会、顾家桥社区仍未出现高风险区,而中北部社区中高风险区大多>22%,塘河社区甚至出现2%的极高风险区。引入分时段交通拥堵特征有效识别了高暴露度路段;在“H-E-V-R”框架下计算得到的综合风险呈现“中北部高、南部低”的空间差异,高风险区聚集于中北部城镇化核心地带。研究结果可为未来社区级别的城市防洪排涝工作以及局部路段的洪涝灾害交通管控工作提供参考。
[Objective] Traditional flood risk assessment frameworks predominantly rely on static exposure indicators,such as population density and land use types,overlooking the tidal movement of people and vehicles between residential,working,and transportation areas. This limitation compromises the spatiotemporal accuracy of risk assessments. To address this,we integrate time-dependent traffic congestion data into the conventional urban flood risk assessment framework,aiming to expand the dimensionality of exposure characterization and provide a supplementary perspective for urban flood risk evaluation. [Methods] Taking the low-lying Future Sci-Tech City in Hangzhou as a case study,we developed a coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model (MIKE FLOOD) to simulate waterlogging scenarios under 1-,10-,and 50-year return periods. Building upon traditional static indicators,time-dependent traffic congestion data were introduced to construct a comprehensive flood risk assessment system based on the Hazard-Exposure-Vulnerability-Resilience (H-E-V-R) framework comprising eight indicators: maximum inundation depth,inundation duration,population density,traffic exposure,building density,greenland coverage,distribution of critical assets,and emergency rescue capacity (measured by euclidean distance). The model was validated using observed inundation depths from actual rainfall events. [Results] Model validation demonstrated high accuracy,with simulation errors for inundation depth at waterlogging points controlled within 5%,and comprehensive runoff coefficient errors of 13.7% and 13.9%,respectively. The model effectively captured the flood evolution characteristics of the study area. As the design rainfall return period increased,both inundation depth and duration escalated,leading to a significant rise in overall flood hazard and comprehensive risk. Traffic exposure varied across different time periods. The morning peak exhibited higher maximum exposure values (0.693),whereas the evening peak showed a more spatially extensive distribution of highly exposed road segments. Under the 50-year return period scenario,the southern part of the study area remained at relatively low risk. In contrast,medium-to-high risk areas in the central and northern communities generally exceeded 22%,with Tanghe Community even experiencing a 2% area of extremely high risk. [Conclusion] The incorporation of time-dependent traffic congestion characteristics effectively identifies road segments with high exposure. Under the H-E-V-R framework,the comprehensive risk exhibits a distinct spatial pattern of “higher in the central-northern regions and lower in the south”,with high-risk zones concentrated in the urbanized core of the central-northern area. These findings provide a valuable reference for community-level urban flood control and traffic management during flood events.
城市洪涝 / MIKE FLOOD模型 / 交通拥堵度 / 危险性-暴露性-脆弱性-防灾减灾能力 / 层次分析法 / 综合风险评估
urban flood / MIKE FLOOD model / traffic congestion index / Hazard-Exposure-Vulnerability-Resilience / Analytic Hierarchy Process / comprehensive risk assessment
| [1] |
张建云, 王银堂, 贺瑞敏, 等. 中国城市洪涝问题及成因分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2016, 27(4): 485-491.
(
|
| [2] |
徐宗学, 叶陈雷. 城市暴雨洪涝模拟: 原理、模型与展望[J]. 水利学报, 2021, 52(4): 381-392.
(
|
| [3] |
张建云, 宋晓猛, 贺瑞敏. 新时期大型城市洪涝灾害防控及思考[J]. 中国水利, 2025(17): 15-21.
(
|
| [4] |
汪军能, 秦年秀, 姜彤, 等. IPCC AR6报告解读: 气候变化对城市、住区和关键基础设施的影响与适应[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(4): 433-441.
(
|
| [5] |
宋晓猛, 徐楠涛, 张建云, 等. 中国城市洪涝问题: 现状、成因与挑战[J]. 水科学进展, 2024, 35(3): 357-373.
(
|
| [6] |
|
| [7] |
黄国如, 罗海婉, 卢鑫祥, 等. 城市洪涝灾害风险分析与区划方法综述[J]. 水资源保护, 2020, 36(6): 1-6, 17.
(
|
| [8] |
张伟, 庄子孟, 孙慧超, 等. 我国城市内涝风险图编制关键问题及研究展望[J]. 水资源保护, 2023, 39(5): 58-68.
(
|
| [9] |
李小宁, 郑世威, 李宥霖, 等. 基于地表-管道-河道耦合模拟的城市内涝风险评估[J]. 水科学进展, 2024, 35(5):738-751.
(
|
| [10] |
李远平, 杨太保, 包训成. 大别山北坡典型区域暴雨洪涝风险评价研究:以安徽省六安市为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2014, 23(4):582-587.
(
|
| [11] |
徐宗学, 卢兴超, 施奇妙. 城市暴雨洪涝灾害特征与风险评估研究进展[J]. 水利水电科技进展, 2025, 45(1): 1-9, 46.
(
|
| [12] |
舒心怡, 徐宗学, 叶陈雷, 等. 考虑空间异质性特征的城市洪涝动态风险分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2024, 60(3): 375-385.
(
|
| [13] |
|
| [14] |
|
| [15] |
梅超, 陈宇枫, 刘家宏, 等. 基于情景模拟的城市内涝对道路交通的影响评估[J]. 水资源保护, 2022, 38(6):31-38.
(
|
| [16] |
|
| [17] |
|
| [18] |
|
| [19] |
|
| [20] |
谢艾利, 明瑞平, 桂梓玲. 基于MIKE FLOOD模型的岳阳城区内涝模拟研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2026, 44(4):6-10.
(
|
| [21] |
何开明, 邱超, 黄星宇, 等. 基于MIKE FLOOD耦合模型的宿迁市中心城区内涝风险评估[J]. 水电能源科学, 2026, 44(2): 28-32, 21.
(
|
| [22] |
鞠俊彦, 刘俊国, 张晓雷, 等. 基于MIKE耦合模型的郑东新区城市洪涝模拟研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2025, 43(7):16-20.
(
|
| [23] |
郑嘉璇. 不同空间尺度下城市洪涝韧性及洪涝风险评估研究[D]. 广州: 华南理工大学, 2024.
(
|
| [24] |
黄国如, 罗海婉, 陈文杰, 等. 广州东濠涌流域城市洪涝灾害情景模拟与风险评估[J]. 水科学进展, 2019, 30(5): 643-652.
(
|
| [25] |
鲁芳. 基于Mike Flood模型的杭州市典型城区城市内涝管理模拟研究[D]. 宜昌: 三峡大学, 2022.
(
|
| [26] |
DB33/T 1191—2020, 浙江省暴雨强度计算标准[S]. 北京: 中国计划出版社, 2020.
(DB33/T 1191—2020, Standards for Rainfall Intensity Computation in Zhejiang Province[S]. Beijing: China Planning Press, 2020.) (in Chinese)
|
| [27] |
黄国如, 王欣. 基于城市雨洪模型的市政排水与水利排涝标准衔接研究[J]. 水资源保护, 2017, 33(2): 1-5.
(
|
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |