不同雨强和雨型对江汉平原城市内涝的影响——以荆州城区为例

叶丽梅, 钟昌霖, 秦鹏程, 张唯, 王奥, 鲁礼炳

长江科学院院报 ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6) : 99-108.

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长江科学院院报 ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6) : 99-108. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20260164
致灾机理与风险评估

不同雨强和雨型对江汉平原城市内涝的影响——以荆州城区为例

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Impact of Rainfall Intensity and Rainfall Pattern on Urban Waterlogging in Jianghan Plain: A Case Study of Jingzhou Urban Area

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摘要

为探究不同雨强和雨型对江汉平原内涝的影响差异,以荆州城区为代表,基于1957—2024年分钟级降水资料,采用模糊识别和广义极值法构建7类雨型、5种重现期共35组降水情景,结合暴雨洪水管理模型(SWMM)和LISFLOOD-FP内涝耦合模型,分析不同降水组合情景下内涝积水范围、深度和时间差异。结果表明:①Ⅰ型(单峰前置型)为荆州城区短时强降水发生频率最高的雨型,频次占比27.5%,也是对内涝影响最大的雨型,相比其他雨型,该雨型造成的特别严重内涝面积更广、起始积水时间和峰现时间更早、平均积水深度更大。②在2~100 a重现期下,荆州城区发生特别严重内涝的面积占比最高,尤其Ⅰ型达到8.0%~15.9%,比面积最小雨型高7.6%~8.8%,城区东南角至西北角一带属于特别严重内涝等级易发区域。③不同街区环境下的积水特征存在差异,排水能力较差的学苑路较荆州大道刘家台路口的积水峰值高2.26 m,平均积水深度高0.27 m。研究结果揭示了不同雨强和雨型下荆州城区内涝的整体特征和局部差异,可为江汉平原地区城市内涝防治和韧性规划建设提供科学依据。

Abstract

[Objective] This study aims to investigate the differential impacts of varying rainfall intensity and types on urban flooding in the Jianghan Plain,provide scientific guidance to enhance urban waterlogging prevention and control capacity and advance the construction of resilient cities. [Methods] The urban area of Jingzhou was taken as the research area. Thirty-five groups of precipitation scenarios involving seven rainfall patterns and five recurrence intervals were constructed by adopting the fuzzy recognition method for rainfall patterns and the generalized extreme value method.The construction is based on the measured data of minute-by-minute precipitation and waterlogging depth from 1957 to 2024,as well as the surrounding geographic information data.Combined with the SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP waterlogging coupling model,the impact characteristics of different precipitation combination scenarios on the scope,depth,and duration of waterlogging were analyzed.The results are further used to clarify the response characteristics of urban waterlogging to different precipitation conditions. [Results] (1) With respect to the effects of rainfall patterns,type I (single-peak early-type rainfall) is not only the most prevalent pattern in short-time heavy precipitation events across Jingzhou’s urban area,accounting for 27.5%,but also the primary driver of severe urban waterlogging. Compared to the other six rainfall patterns,this pattern is characterized by concentrated precipitation and high intensity in the early stage,which tends to overload drainage systems within a short period. Consequently,it leads to more extensive and severe waterlogging,with earlier onset and peak times of water accumulation,as well as a higher average water depth. The suddenness and severity of waterlogging disasters are thus more pronounced. (2) As for the effects of recurrence intervals,across the 2-year to 100-year recurrence interval spectrum,extremely severe waterlogging is the dominant waterlogging type in Jingzhou’s urban area,with Rainfall Pattern I accounting for 8.0%-15.9%—7.6%-8.8% percentage points higher than the area covered by the least prevalent rainfall pattern. Spatially,the belt extending from the urban southeast to northwest,marked by low-lying topography and sparse drainage pipe networks,constitutes a high-risk zone for extremely severe waterlogging. Given the highest risk of waterlogging under extreme precipitation,this area should be prioritized for prevention and control measures.(3) With regard to disparities across local urban blocks,variations in block attributes give rise to distinct differences in waterlogging signatures. Notably,the Xueyuan road area,characterized by suboptimal drainage capacity,is disproportionately vulnerable to precipitation impacts. Under extreme precipitation scenarios,this area exhibits a 2.26 m higher peak waterlogging depth compared with the Liujiatai intersection of Jingzhou avenue,a site with superior drainage performance. Additionally,it experiences a 0.27 m greater mean waterlogging depth,a prolonged inundation duration,and consequently,elevated challenges for waterlogging mitigation and control. [Conclusions] This study elucidates the holistic characteristics and localized disparities of urban waterlogging in Jingzhou under variable rainfall intensities and patterns,identifies the high-risk zones,key drivers,and evolutionary trends of waterlogging hazards,and fills the critical research gap in prior investigations on Jingzhou’s urban waterlogging,which inadequately addressed the coupled impacts of rainfall intensity and pattern. The findings offer robust theoretical foundations and technical underpinnings for the design of waterlogging mitigation projects and the optimal upgrading of drainage infrastructure in Jingzhou’s urban area. Furthermore,they provide a valuable reference framework for waterlogging research and hazard mitigation initiatives in cities across the Jianghan Plain.

关键词

城市内涝 / 降水情景模拟 / SWMM和LISFLOOD-FP内涝耦合模型 / 内涝特征 / 雨型雨强

Key words

urban waterlogging / rainfall scenario simulation / SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP coupled waterlogging model / waterlogging characteristics / rainfall pattern and intensity

引用本文

导出引用
叶丽梅, 钟昌霖, 秦鹏程, . 不同雨强和雨型对江汉平原城市内涝的影响——以荆州城区为例[J]. 长江科学院院报. 2026, 43(6): 99-108 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20260164
YE Li-mei, Zhong Chang-lin, QIN Peng-cheng, et al. Impact of Rainfall Intensity and Rainfall Pattern on Urban Waterlogging in Jianghan Plain: A Case Study of Jingzhou Urban Area[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2026, 43(6): 99-108 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20260164
中图分类号: TV122.1    TV877 (非工程防洪措施)   

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基金

湖北省自然科学气象创新发展联合基金项目(2025AFD425)
湖北省自然科学气象创新发展联合基金项目(2023AFD098)
全国暴雨研究开放基金项目(BYKJ2025M20)
广西壮族自治区重点研发项目(桂科AB25069132)

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