南水北调中线工程多水源均衡配置模型及在线调蓄方案

黄草; 李孝宝; 张爱静; 陈悦云; 欧思佳

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20260155

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长江科学院院报 ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (10) : 24-33. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20260155

水资源

南水北调中线工程多水源均衡配置模型及在线调蓄方案

黄草 ¹^,² ,
李孝宝 ¹ ,
张爱静 ³ ,
陈悦云 ³ ,
欧思佳 ¹

作者信息 +

Multi-source Balanced Allocation Modeling and Online Regulation Strategies for the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

针对南水北调中线工程受水区水资源供需时空失衡与系统韧性不足的问题,研究旨在量化在线调蓄工程的调控效益,并提炼其多情景适应性调度模式。集成全线23座控制性水库,构建南水北调中线工程多水源均衡配置模型,基于2010—2023年长系列水文数据进行模拟,并对比分析2025年、2030年、2035年水平年有无在线调蓄工程的水资源配置方案。研究表明,在线调蓄工程显著提升供水保障与稳定性,优化供水结构:各水平年受水区缺水率均值分别由8.47%、6.36%、6.29%降至7.28%、5.13%、5.13%;缺水率变异系数(C_v)分别下降了5.5%、7.09%、14.94%,供水波动性显著减弱;地下水供水占比分别下降了0.48%、0.67%、1.61%。在线调蓄工程通过“丰蓄、枯补、平调”的优化调度,有效缓解了水资源供需时空失衡,增强了供水系统应对极端水文事件的韧性,为南水北调中线后续工程规划与区域水网建设提供了科学依据和技术支撑。

Abstract

[Objective] Addressing the spatiotemporal imbalance of water supply and demand and the insufficient system resilience in the receiving area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP-MR), this study aims to quantify the regulation benefits of online regulation projects and extract their multi-scenario adaptive scheduling modes. [Methods] By integrating 23 controlling reservoirs along the route, a multi-objective water resource optimization allocation model was constructed. Based on long-series hydrological data from 2010 to 2023, water allocation schemes for the planning horizon years of 2025, 2030, and 2035 were simulated and comparatively analyzed under scenarios with and without online regulation projects. [Results] Online regulation projects significantly enhance water supply security and stability while optimizing the water supply structure. Specifically, the average water shortage rates in the receiving area for the respective planning years decreased from 8.47%, 6.36%, and 6.29% to 7.28%, 5.13%, and 5.13%. The coefficient of variation (C_v) of the water shortage rate decreased by 5.50%, 7.09%, and 14.94%, respectively, indicating a significant attenuation in supply volatility. Furthermore, the proportion of groundwater supply decreased by 0.48%, 0.67%, and 1.61%, respectively. [Conclusion] Through optimized scheduling strategies of “storing during wet periods, supplementing during dry periods, and regulating during normal periods”, online regulation projects effectively alleviate spatiotemporal supply-demand imbalances and bolster the resilience of the water supply system against extreme hydrological events. These findings provide a scientific basis and technical support for the future planning of the SNWDP-MR and the construction of regional water networks.

导出引用

黄草, 李孝宝, 张爱静, 等. 南水北调中线工程多水源均衡配置模型及在线调蓄方案[J]. 长江科学院院报. 2026, 43(10): 24-33 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20260155

HUANG Cao, LI Xiao-bao, ZHANG Ai-jing, et al. Multi-source Balanced Allocation Modeling and Online Regulation Strategies for the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2026, 43(10): 24-33 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20260155

中图分类号： TV213 (水资源开发)

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