基于分灾种地形赋值的精细化暴雨洪涝风险评估

刘贞, 赵亮, 王丽荣, 王莎, 张素云, 沈鹿鸣, 李卫敏

长江科学院院报 ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6) : 80-88.

PDF(8941 KB)
PDF(8941 KB)
长江科学院院报 ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6) : 80-88. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20251155
致灾机理与风险评估

基于分灾种地形赋值的精细化暴雨洪涝风险评估

作者信息 +

Refined Risk Assessment of Rainstorm-Induced Flood Disasters Based on Hazard-Specific Terrain Weighting

Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

暴雨引发的山洪和城市积涝是危害严重的自然灾害之一,传统暴雨洪涝风险评估中对地形因子统一赋值,无法区分地形对山洪与城市积涝的不同成灾机制。通过分别对山洪与城市积涝的地形因子赋值,构建了融合致灾因子和分灾种孕灾环境的精细化致灾风险模型,实现了对2种灾害孕灾环境的机理化分区和综合风险融合。以秦皇岛为实证区域,验证了该模型的有效性。结果表明:①该模型有效区分了秦皇岛地区山洪与城市积涝的孕灾环境,中南部平坦地区因城镇耕地集中,城市积涝孕灾环境指数高,北部及东北部山区则因地形起伏大、河网密集,山洪孕灾环境指数高;②暴雨综合高风险区主要位于秦皇岛市中部地区,是暴雨强度指数与孕灾环境高值叠加区;③历史暴雨过程灾情与模型输出的综合风险指数显著相关,表明该模型对实际灾害态势具有较好的指示意义。

Abstract

[Objective] Addressing the increasing demands for disaster prevention and mitigation,it is essential not only to enhance the accuracy of rainstorm forecasting but also to assess in advance the potential disaster-causing risks posed by rainstorms. In contrast to evaluation models that rely on uniform topographic factors,this study aims to reflect the distinct disaster mechanisms of mountain torrents and urban waterlogging,thereby accurately revealing the comprehensive risk patterns of regional flood disasters caused by rainstorms. [Methods] By assigning specific topographic factors to mountain torrents and urban waterlogging respectively,this study develops a refined disaster-causing risk model that integrates hazard-inducing factors and disaster-specific hazard-inducing environments. The model enables mechanism-based zonation of the hazard-inducing environments for both disaster types and the integration of comprehensive risks. Taking Qinhuangdao as the empirical area,the validity of the proposed model is verified. [Results] (1) Fine-scale modeling of the hazard-formative environment effectively distinguishes the disaster-prone contexts for flash floods and urban waterlogging. The flat central-southern plains,characterized by concentrated urban and agricultural land,show a high hazard-formative environmental index for urban waterlogging,while the mountainous northern and northeastern areas,with significant topographic relief and dense river networks,exhibit a high index for flash floods. (2) The comprehensive high-risk zones for torrential rain disasters in Qinhuangdao are mainly located in the central part of the city,representing areas where high hazard intensity overlaps with highly sensitive disaster-prone environments. (3) The comprehensive risk index of historical rainstorm events shows correlation coefficients R of 0.721,0.698,and 0.724 with direct economic loss (GDP),affected population,and affected crop area,respectively,all passing the significance test at α=0.05. The correlation coefficient R between the comprehensive disaster index and the comprehensive risk index across counties (districts) reaches 0.912,passing the significance test at α=0.01,indicating that the model has good indicative significance for actual disaster situations. [Conclusions] The refined comprehensive risk model developed in this study,which integrates hazard-inducing factors and disaster-specific hazard-forming environments,effectively captures the differential mechanisms of mountain torrents and urban waterlogging. This model not only offers a unified framework for accurately delineating the regional pattern of comprehensive rainstorm and flood risk,providing a paradigm for flood risk assessment in analogous regions,but also can be applied to dynamic risk assessment for single hazard-inducing processes.

关键词

暴雨 / 致灾因子 / 山洪 / 城市积涝 / 地形因子 / 孕灾环境 / 风险评估

Key words

torrential rain / hazard factor / flash flood / urban waterlogging / topographic factor / hazard-formative environment / risk assessment

引用本文

导出引用
刘贞, 赵亮, 王丽荣, . 基于分灾种地形赋值的精细化暴雨洪涝风险评估[J]. 长江科学院院报. 2026, 43(6): 80-88 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20251155
LIU Zhen, ZHAO Liang, WANG Li-rong, et al. Refined Risk Assessment of Rainstorm-Induced Flood Disasters Based on Hazard-Specific Terrain Weighting[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2026, 43(6): 80-88 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20251155
中图分类号: TV122.1    P426.616   

参考文献

[1]
Yang H, Deng Y, Cui C, et al. Dynamic Trigger and Moisture Source of Two Typical Meiyu Front Rainstorms Associated with Eastward-moving Cloud Clusters from the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2022, 36(3): 478-499.
[2]
舒章康, 李文鑫, 张建云, 等. 中国极端降水和高温历史变化及未来趋势[J]. 中国工程科学, 2022, 24(5):116-125.
(Shu Zhang-kang, Li Wen-xin, Zhang Jian-yun, et al. Historical Changes and Future Trends of Extreme Precipitation and High Temperature in China[J]. Strategic Study of CAE, 2022, 24(5):116-125.)
[3]
Gu X, Ye L, Xin Q, et al. Extreme Precipitation in China:A Review on Statistical Methods and Applications[J]. Advances in Water Resources, 2022, 163:104144.
[4]
Shi W, Wen S M, Zhang J, et al. Extreme Weather as a Window: Exploring the Seek and Supply of Climate Change Information during Meteorological Disasters in China[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2023, 14(4): 615-623.
[5]
张井勇, 何静, 张丽霞, 等. 面向碳中和的“一带一路”气候变化主要特征与灾害风险研究[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2023, 38(9):1371-1386.
(Zhang Jing-yong, He Jing, Zhang Li-xia, et al. Main Climate Change Characteristics and Disaster Risks Oriented towards Carbon Neutrality over the Belt and Road Regions[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2023, 38(9):1371-1386.)
[6]
谌芸, 孙军, 徐珺, 等. 北京721特大暴雨极端性分析及思考(一)观测分析及思考[J]. 气象, 2012, 38(10):1255-1266.
(Chen Yun, Sun Jun, Xu Jun, et al. Analysis and Thinking on the Extremes of the 21 July 2012 Torrential Rain in Beijing Partⅰ: Observation and Thinking[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2012, 38(10):1255-1266.)
[7]
杨浩, 周文, 汪小康, 等. “21·7”河南特大暴雨降水特征及极端性分析[J]. 气象, 2022, 48(5):571-579.
(Yang Hao, Zhou Wen, Wang Xiao-kang, et al. Analysis on Extremity and Characteristics of The“21·7”Severe Torrential Rain in Henan Province[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2022, 48(5): 571-579.)
[8]
杨晓亮, 杨敏, 金晓青, 等. “23.7”河北罕见特大暴雨过程降水演变与中尺度特征分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2024, 43(1):1-12.
(Yang Xiao-liang, Yang Min, Jin Xiao-qing, et al. Analysis of Precipitation Evolution and Mesoscale Characteristics for a Severe Torrential Rain Event in Hebei from 29 July to 2 August 2023[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2024, 43(1): 1-12.)
[9]
许启慧, 于长文, 张金龙, 等. 基于芝加哥算法的河北省四城市短历时暴雨极值特点分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2018, 37(3):288-292.
(Xu Qi-hui, Yu Chang-wen, Zhang Jin-long, et al. The Characteristic Analysis of the Short-duration Rainstorm Extremes in Four Cities of Hebei Province Based on the Chicago Method[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2018, 37(3):288-292.)
[10]
赵蔚, 刘建宏, 王坤, 等. 半干旱区暴雨综合灾害风险预警模型构建及其在宁夏的应用[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(3): 458-464.
(Zhao Wei, Liu Jian-hong, Wang Kun, et al. Construction of an Integrated Rainstorm Hazard Risk Warning Model in Semi-arid Areas and Its Application in Ningxia[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(3): 458-464.)
[11]
伍红雨, 邹燕, 刘尉. 广东区域性暴雨过程的定量化评估及气候特征[J]. 应用气象学报, 2019, 30(2): 233-244.
(Wu Hong-yu, Zou Yan, Liu Wei. Quantitative Assessment of Regional Heavy Rainfall Process in Guangdong and Its Climatological Characteristics[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2019, 30(2): 233-244.)
[12]
胡颖, 殷娴, 陈剑桥, 等. 基于GIS的云南省1km精细化暴雨灾害风险评估[J]. 气象科技, 2022, 50(5):742-750.
(Hu Ying, Yin Xian, Chen Jian-qiao, et al. Rainstorm Disaster Risk Assessment in Yunnan Based on 1 km Grid in GIS[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2022, 50(5): 742-750.)
[13]
敖雪, 翟晴飞, 赵春雨, 等. 辽宁省精细化暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估与预评估[J]. 气象科技, 2024, 52(3):403-414.
(Ao Xue, Zhai Qing-fei, Zhao Chun-yu, et al. Risk Assessment and Pre-assessment of Refined Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in Liaoning Province[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2024, 52(3): 403-414.)
[14]
王秀荣, 吕终亮, 王莉萍, 等. 一种简化的暴雨灾害风险及影响评估方法和应用研究: 以京津冀“7·21”暴雨事件为例[J]. 气象, 2016, 42(2): 213-220.
(Wang Xiu-rong, Zhong-liang, Wang Li-ping, et al. Simplified Assessment Method and Application Research of Rainstorm Disaster Risk and Impact—Using Jing-jin-Ji “7.21” Heavy Rain as an Example[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2016, 42(2): 213-220.)
[15]
谢五三, 唐为安, 王胜. 安徽省暴雨致灾危险性评估[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2023(3): 353-359.
(Xie Wu-san, Tang Wei-an, Wang Sheng. Disaster-causing Hazard Assessment of Rainstorms in Anhui Province[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2023(3): 353-359.)
[16]
王芬, 洪国平, 赵小芳, 等. 暴雨过程致灾危险性评估方法研究:以孝感市“8·12”暴雨过程为例[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2023, 42(6):724-730.
(Wang Fen, Hong Guo-ping, Zhao Xiao-fang, et al. Research of Rainstorm Event Disaster Hazard Assessment Method—A Case Study of“8·12”rainstorm Event in Xiaogan City[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2023, 42(6): 724-730.)
[17]
张文婷, 廖婷婷, 张行南, 等. 基于组合赋权的长江上游山洪风险评估:以嘉陵江流域为例[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2025, 42(2):76-82,99.
(Zhang Wen-ting, Liao Ting-ting, Zhang Xing-nan, et al. Flash Flood Risk Assessment in the Upper Yangtze River Based on Combined Weighting: a Case Study of Jialing River Basin[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, 2025, 42(2): 76-82, 99.)
[18]
陈丽慧, 陈洁, 高郭平. 滨海城市洪涝风险评估:以上海临港新城为例[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2025, 42(8):84-93.
(Chen Li-hui, Chen Jie, Gao Guo-ping. Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Cities:A Case Study of Lingang New City, Shanghai[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2025, 42(8):84-93.)
[19]
中国气象局. 全国气象灾害综合风险普查技术规范:暴雨灾害调查与风险评估技术规范(灾害调查类)[Z]. 北京: 中国气象局全国气象灾害综合风险普查领导小组办公室, 2021.
(China Meteorological Administration. Technical Specifications for National Comprehensive Risk Census of Meteorological Disasters:Technical Specifications for Rainstorm Disaster Investigation and Risk Assessment (Disaster Investigation Category)[Z]. Beijing:Office of the Leading Group for National Meteorological Disaster Comprehensive Risk Census, 2021.)
[20]
王小亚, 马诺, 李海花, 等. 南疆暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2022, 16(4):72-78.
(Wang Xiao-ya, Ma Nuo, Li Hai-hua, et al. Risk Zoning of Rainstorm and Flood Disasters in Southern Xinjiang[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2022, 16(4): 72-78.)
[21]
赵华, 李树军, 肖清华, 等. 潍坊市强降雨洪涝灾害风险评估与区划研究[J]. 沙漠与绿洲气象, 2020, 14(6):61-67.
(Zhao Hua, Li Shu-jun, Xiao Qing-hua, et al. Assessment and Zonation of Heavy Rainfall and Flood Disaster Risk in Weifang City[J]. Desert and Oasis Meteorology, 2020, 14(6):61-67.)
[22]
郑德凤, 高敏, 李钰, 等. 基于GIS的大连市暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险评估[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 50(3):1-8,22.
(Zheng De-feng, Gao Min, Li Yu, et al. Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Rainstorm-flood Disaster in Dalian City Based on GIS[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences), 2022, 50(3):1-8,22.) (in Chinese)
[23]
彭建, 魏海, 武文欢, 等. 基于土地利用变化情景的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估: 以深圳市茅洲河流域为例[J]. 生态学报, 2018, 38(11): 3741-3755.
(Peng Jian, Wei Hai, Wu Wen-huan, et al. Storm Flood Disaster Risk Assessment in Urban Area Based on the Simulation of Land Use Scenarios: a Case of Maozhou Watershed in Shenzhen City[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2018, 38(11): 3741-3755.)
[24]
DB15/T 3643-2024V,气象灾害风险评估技术规范暴雨[S]. 呼和浩特: 内蒙古自治区气象局, 2024.
(DB15/T 3643-2024V,Technical Specification for Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment:ainstorm[S]. Hohhot: Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Bureau, 2024.) (in Chinese)
[25]
顾荣直, 禹梁玉, 康志明, 等. 一种基于下垫面特征修正的暴雨洪涝灾害风险预估方法: 中国:CN202410792512.X[P]. 2024-10-29.
(Gu Rong-zhi, Yu Liang-yu, Kang Zhi-ming, et al. A Method for Predicting Rainstorm Flooding Disaster Risk Based on Correction of Underlying Surface Characteristics: CN202410792512.X[P]. 2024-10-29.) (in Chinese)
[26]
林森, 刘蓓蓓, 闫雪, 等. 灾害大数据驱动的县域重大洪涝过程灾害风险评估[J]. 灾害学, 2022, 37(4):166-172.
(Lin Sen, Liu Bei-bei, Yan Xue, et al. Disaster Risk Assessment at County Level of a Heavy Flooding Driven by Disaster Big Data[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2022, 37(4):166-172.)

基金

河北省自然科学基金项目(D2024304002)
中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放研究课题(23SWQXM007)
环渤海区域海洋气象科技创新项目(QYXM202509)
秦皇岛市气象局创新团队建设项目(QHDCXTD202403)

责任编辑: 罗玉兰
PDF(8941 KB)

Accesses

Citation

Detail

段落导航
相关文章

/