基于耦合建模的城市洪涝风险演化分析——以武汉市沙湖小流域为例

高伟, 黎欣, 沈秋, 谢培庆, 许柯, 邓舒颖

长江科学院院报 ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6) : 51-61.

PDF(4771 KB)
PDF(4771 KB)
长江科学院院报 ›› 2026, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6) : 51-61. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20251154
致灾机理与风险评估

基于耦合建模的城市洪涝风险演化分析——以武汉市沙湖小流域为例

作者信息 +

A Coupled Modeling Framework for Precise Identification of Urban Waterlogging Risk Based on Dynamic-scale Zoning: A Case Study of Shahu Small Watershed in Wuhan City

Author information +
文章历史 +

摘要

为减少突发性极端天气事件造成的人员和经济损失,建立了一种改进的城市洪涝风险识别模型。针对传统流域划分方法难以反映地表异质性的局限,提出了一种动态尺度分区方法以划定集水区单元。该方法能有效提升模型的空间表达能力,以实现更精准的洪涝风险制图,通过武汉的3次极端暴雨事件对其进行了验证。结果表明:①采用动态尺度分区方法构建的模型性能显著,模拟渍水点与实测渍水点的吻合度>85%,降雨-径流变化趋势保持了良好同步性。②不同年份间洪涝风险时空分析显示,受下垫面变化等条件影响风险格局呈现阶段性改善的趋势,即低风险聚集区面积占比由6.2%扩大至26.4%,高风险聚集区面积占比大幅下降并趋于稳定。基于动态尺度分区方法的SWMM-LISFLOOD-FP一、二维耦合建模框架在识别关键高风险区域方面表现出良好的有效性,为缺乏地下管网数据的城市内涝精准风险识别提供了可靠的技术路径。

Abstract

[Objective] Conventional watershed delineation methods often fail to capture surface heterogeneity. To address this limitation,this study proposes a dynamic-scale zoning method for delineating catchment units and develops a flood risk identification framework integrating land cover and dynamic-scale zoning. This framework couples high-precision simulation with large-scale risk identification,aiming to provide a transferable technical pathway for flood risk management and early warning in large Chinese cities. [Methods] The established methods adopted in this study include:(1) a coupled 1D-2D hydrological and hydrodynamic model based on SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP;(2) parameter sensitivity analysis using the Morris screening method;and (3) spatial pattern evolution analysis of flood risk based on Moran’s I index. The novel approaches proposed in this study include:(1) a dynamic-scale zoning method that accounts for surface heterogeneity for precise catchment delineation; and (2) a road-network topology-based generalization strategy for underground drainage networks,providing reliable support for simulations lacking actual pipe network data.Based on the above SWMM 1D pipe network model and the LISFLOOD-FP 2D hydrodynamic model,a coupled 1D-2D urban surface flood risk assessment model was constructed,which not only accounts for underground drainage facilities but also fully simulates the flood evolution process.The coupled model was validated using three extreme storm events in the Wuhan Shahu small watershed. [Results] (1) The model constructed using the dynamic-scale zoning method exhibited significant performance,with over 85% agreement between simulated and observed inundation points,and good synchronization in rainfall-runoff trends. (2) Spatiotemporal analysis of flood risk across different years revealed a phased improvement in the risk pattern under the influence of changing underlying surface conditions: the area of low-risk clusters expanded from 6.2% to 26.4%,while the proportion of high-risk clusters decreased substantially and stabilized. The SWMM-LISFLOOD-FP coupled 1D-2D modeling framework based on the dynamic-scale zoning method demonstrated good effectiveness in identifying key high-risk areas and provided a reliable technical pathway for accurate flood risk identification in cities lacking underground pipe network data. (3) Parameter sensitivity analysis indicated that the sensitivity of all parameters gradually decreased with increasing storm intensity and slope. In highly urbanized areas,the surface runoff coefficient alone is insufficient to characterize surface ponding processes and must be calibrated in conjunction with physical hydrological parameters. [Conclusions] The dynamic-scale zoning method proposed in this study can effectively account for surface heterogeneity. Regional empirical results demonstrate the reliability of the coupled modeling framework in addressing long-term spatial changes and hydrodynamic coupling simulations,providing practical technical support for accurate flood risk assessment in highly urbanized areas. A limitation of this study is the lack of simulation for water accumulation at overpasses and subsurface flow in underground spaces. Future research should focus on more comprehensive and detailed validation of the applicability of this assessment framework in complex environments at larger scales.

关键词

洪涝模拟 / 风险识别 / 集水区划分 / 模型耦合

Key words

flood simulation / risk identification / catchment delineation / model coupling

引用本文

导出引用
高伟, 黎欣, 沈秋, . 基于耦合建模的城市洪涝风险演化分析——以武汉市沙湖小流域为例[J]. 长江科学院院报. 2026, 43(6): 51-61 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20251154
GAO Wei, LI Xin, SHEN Qiu, et al. A Coupled Modeling Framework for Precise Identification of Urban Waterlogging Risk Based on Dynamic-scale Zoning: A Case Study of Shahu Small Watershed in Wuhan City[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2026, 43(6): 51-61 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20251154
中图分类号: TU998.4   

参考文献

[1]
张洪云, 王永强, 王大胜, 等. 基于降雨情景模拟的长江中下游流域淹没风险[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2023, 40(11): 71-78.
(Zhang Hong-yun, Wang Yong-qiang, Wang Da-sheng, et al. Inundation Risk of Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Basin Based on Rainfall Scenario Simulation[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, 2023, 40(11): 71-78.) (in Chinese)
[2]
Cea L, Costabile P. Flood Risk in Urban Areas: Modelling, Management and Adaptation to Climate Change.a Review[J]. Hydrology, 2022, 9(3): 50.
[3]
邓成, 夏军, 佘敦先, 等. 基于水文水动力耦合模型的深圳市典型区域城市内涝模拟[J]. 武汉大学学报(工学版), 2023, 56(8): 912-921.
(Deng Cheng, Xia Jun, She Dun-xian, et al. Urban Waterlogging Simulation in a Typical Area in Shenzhen Based on Hydrological-hydrodynamic Coupling Model[J]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2023, 56(8): 912-921.) (in Chinese)
[4]
Boulange J, Hanasaki N, Yamazaki D, et al. Role of Dams in Reducing Global Flood Exposure under Climate Change[J]. Nature Communications, 2021, 12: 417.
[5]
中华人民共和国水利部. 《中国水旱灾害防御公报2022》概要[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2023, 33(10):78-82.
(Compilation Group of China Flood,Drought Disaster Prevention Bulletin. Summary of China Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Bulletin 2022[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2023, 33(10):78-82.) (in Chinese)
[6]
Li G, Liu J, Shao W. Urban Flood Risk Assessment under Rapid Urbanization in Zhengzhou City, China[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2023, 4(3): 332-348.
[7]
Wu P, Clark R, Furtado K, et al. A Case Study of the July 2021 Henan Extreme Rainfall Event: From Weather Forecast to Climate Risks[J]. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2023, 40: 100571.
[8]
吴禄源, 仝敬博, 王自法, 等. 基于深度卷积神经网络和迁移学习的农村房屋洪涝灾害后受损等级分类[J]. 地球科学, 2023, 48(5):1742-1754.
(Wu Lu-yuan, Tong Jing-bo, Wang Zi-fa, et al. Classification of Damaged Grade on Rural Houses after Flood Disaster Based on Deep Convolutional Neural Network and Transfer Learning[J]. Earth Science, 2023, 48(5): 1742-1754.) (in Chinese)
[9]
Luo P, Luo M, Li F, et al. Urban Flood Numerical Simulation: Research, Methods and Future Perspectives[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2022, 156:105478.
[10]
李莹, 赵珊珊. 2001—2020年中国洪涝灾害损失与致灾危险性研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(2):154-165.
(Li Ying, Zhao Shan-shan. Floods Losses and Hazards in China from 2001 to 2020[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(2):154-165.) (in Chinese)
[11]
Azadgar A, Nyka L, Salata S. Advancing Urban Flood Resilience:a Systematic Review of Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model, Research Trends, and Future Directions[J]. Land, 2024, 13(12): 2138.
[12]
陈丽慧, 陈洁, 高郭平. 滨海城市洪涝风险评估:以上海临港新城为例[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2025, 42(8):84-93.
(Chen Li-hui, Chen Jie, Gao Guo-ping. Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Cities: a Case Study of Lingang New City, Shanghai[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2025, 42(8): 84-93.) (in Chinese)
[13]
Che L, Yin S, Guo Y. Flood Risk Assessment Combining the Historical Disaster Statistics Method with the Index System Method[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2025, 70(3): 510-521.
[14]
Li L, Wen J, Shi Y, et al. Disaster Losses in Shanghai Decreased under Rapid Urbanization: Evidence from 1980 to 2019[J]. Urban Climate, 2025, 59: 102278.
[15]
Usman Kaoje I, Abdul Rahman M Z, Idris N H, et al. Physical Flood Vulnerability Assessment Using Geospatial Indicator-based Approach and Participatory Analytical Hierarchy Process:A Case Study in Kota Bharu, Malaysia[J]. Water, 2021, 13(13):1786.
[16]
Qiao Y, Wang Y, Jin N, et al. Assessing Flood Risk to Urban Road Users Based on Rainfall Scenario Simulations[J]. Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment, 2023, 123:103919.
[17]
Hu Hai-bo, Yu Miao, Zhang Xi-ya, et al. Urban Hydrological Model (UHM) Developed for an Urban Flash Flood Simulation and Analysis of the Flood Intensity Sensitivity to Urbanization[J]. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 2024, 15(1): 23.
[18]
Wijaya O T, Yang T H, Hsu H M, et al. A Rapid Flood Inundation Model for Urban Flood Analyses[J]. MethodsX, 2023, 10: 102202.
[19]
刘登海, 沈伟, 刘子扬, 等. 黄河上游德恒隆古滑坡-堰塞湖-溃决洪水灾害链全过程模拟与灾害放大效应[J/OL]. 地球科学, 2025: 1-11.(2025-09-22).
(Liu Deng-hai, Shen Wei, Liu Zi-yang, et al. Runout Simulation and Disaster Amplification of the Dehenglong Paleolandslide-Dammed Lake-outburst Flood Chain in the Upper Yellow River[J/OL]. Earth Science, 2025: 1-11.(2025-09-22).) (in Chinese)
[20]
Wood-Ponce R, Diab G, Liu Z, et al. Developing Data-driven Learning Models to Predict Urban Stormwater Runoff Volume[J]. Urban Water Journal, 2024, 21(5):549-564.
[21]
游畅. InfoWorks ICM在城市排水系统雨水管网改造中的应用[J]. 黑龙江水利科技, 2020, 48(3): 139-142, 157.
(You Chang. Application of InfoWorksICM in Storm Water Network Reconstruction of Urban Drainage System[J]. Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology, 2020, 48(3): 139-142, 157.) (in Chinese)
[22]
喻海军, 马建明, 张大伟, 等. IFMS Urban软件在城市洪水风险图编制中的应用[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2018, 28(7): 13-17.
(Yu Hai-jun, Ma Jian-ming, Zhang Da-wei, et al. Application of IFMS Urban Software in Urban Flood Risk Mapping[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2018, 28(7): 13-17.) (in Chinese)
[23]
Yang J, Huang X. The 30 m Annual Land Cover Dataset and Its Dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019[J]. Earth System Science Data, 2021, 13(8): 3907-3925.
[24]
Liu Z, Tang H, Feng L, et al. China Building Rooftop Area: The First Multi-annual (2016-2021) and High-resolution (2.5 m) Building Rooftop Area Dataset in China Derived with Super-resolution Segmentation from Sentinel-2 Imagery[J]. Earth System Science Data,2023, 15(8):3547-3572.
[25]
Wu Z, Ma B, Wang H, et al. Study on the Improved Method of Urban Subcatchments Division Based on Aspect and Slope—Taking SWMM Model as Example[J]. Hydrology, 2020, 7(2): 26.
[26]
Haltas I, Tayfur G, Elci S. Two-dimensionalNumerical Modeling of Flood Wave Propagation in an Urban Area Due to Ürkmez Dam-break, izmir, Turkey[J]. Natural Hazards, 2016, 81(3): 2103-2119.
[27]
Martínez-Gomariz E, Forero-Ortiz E, Russo B, et al. A Novel Expert Opinion-based Approach to Compute Estimations of Flood Damage to Property in Dense Urban Environments. Barcelona Case Study[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 598: 126244.
[28]
Peng J, Zhao H, Li R, et al. Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of SWMM: a Case Study of Airport Airfield Area[J]. Natural Hazards, 2024, 120(7): 6551-6568.
[29]
Jeung M, Jang J, Yoon K, et al. Data Assimilation for Urban Stormwater and Water Quality Simulations Using Deep Reinforcement Learning[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2023, 624: 129973.
[30]
施奇妙, 徐宗学, 卢兴超, 等. 基于局部和全局方法的SWMM模型参数敏感性分析[J]. 水利水电技术(中英文), 2025, 56(10): 58-71.
(Shi Qi-miao, Xu Zong-xue, Lu Xing-chao, et al. Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of SWMM Model Based on Local and Global Methods[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2025, 56(10): 58-71.) (in Chinese)
[31]
Wang Yun-tao. Study on the Simulation and Evaluation of LID Adaptation Measures Based on SWMM[J]. Journal of Water Resources Research, 2020, 9(1): 22-32.
[32]
Hsu M H, Chen S H, Chang T J. Inundation Simulation for Urban Drainage Basin with Storm Sewer System[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2000, 234(1/2): 21-37.
[33]
Rezaei-Sadr H. Flood Hydrograph Prediction in a Semiarid Mountain Catchment:The Role of Catchment Subdivision[J]. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2020, 13(Supp.1): e12568.
[34]
Jiang L, Chen Y, Wang H. Urban Flood Simulation Based on the SWMM Model[J]. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 2015, 368: 186-191.
[35]
Sadeghi F, Rubinato M, Goerke M, et al. Assessing the Performance of LISFLOOD-FP and SWMM for a Small Watershed with Scarce Data Availability[J]. Water, 2022, 14(5): 748.
[36]
Döring A, Neuweiler I. Generation of Stormwater Drainage Networks Using Spatial Data[M]//New Trends in Urban Drainage Modelling. Cham: Springer International Publishing,2018: 576-581.
[37]
Mirhosseini M, Farshchi P, Noroozi A A, et al. An Investigation on the Effect of Land Use Land Cover Changes on Surface Water Quantity[J]. Water Supply, 2018, 18(2): 490-503.
[38]
Anselin L. The Moran Scatterplot as an ESDA Tool to Assess Local Instability in Spatial Association[M]//Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS. London: Routledge,2019: 111-126.
[39]
Zhong B, Wang Z, Yang H, et al. Parameter Optimization of SWMM Model Using Integrated Morris and GLUE Methods[J]. Water, 2023, 15(1): 149.
[40]
刘兴坡. 基于径流系数的城市降雨径流模型参数校准方法[J]. 给水排水, 2009, 35(11): 213-217.
(Liu Xing-po. Parameter Calibration Method for Urban Rainfall-runoff Model Based on Runoff Coefficient[J]. Water & Wastewater Engineering, 2009, 35(11): 213-217.) (in Chinese)

基金

湖北省自然科学基金气象创新发展联合基金项目(2023AFD098)

责任编辑: 罗玉兰
PDF(4771 KB)

Accesses

Citation

Detail

段落导航
相关文章

/