现有边坡分析方法难以刻画多过程耦合下其变形破坏特性及演变,主要原因是破坏与变形分析割裂、研究多聚焦于单一因素影响等。为了揭示边坡的变形-破坏耦合机理及其对加载条件的依赖机制,提出了“变形-破坏过程一体化分析”的学术新思路,基于可准确测量的边坡变形定量追踪和刻画边坡破坏过程。研发了边坡多过程离心模型测试技术,有效模拟各类荷载和工程情景,实现边坡全场变形与破坏全过程的定量测定。结果表明,力-水-时等因素诱发了边坡潜在破坏面附近的“局部化区域”,该区域的发展演化集中体现了变形局部化过程与破坏面形成过程的耦合机理,并揭示了边坡潜在破坏面的位移协调规律。在此基础上,引入土的力-水-时耦合本构模型与边坡变形-破坏耦合机理、以潜在破坏面为核心建立了描述边坡变形-破坏特性的三大力学方程,提出了边坡变形-稳定性一体化分析方法,并将其在库区、矿山等边坡已开展工程应用。构建的边坡变形-破坏一体化理论,实现了基于变形监测对边坡稳定性的预报。

[Objective] Slope failure theory is the fundamental basis for safety assessments of earth-rock dams, embankments, and slope engineering projects. Most existing slope analysis methods focus on single processes and struggle to adequately characterize slope deformation, failure characteristics, and their evolution under the coupling of multiple processes such as loading, moisture variation, and rheological effects. Moreover, conventional failure analyses often rely on stress-based failure criteria, limiting their ability to analyze the slope failure process and to reveal the underlying failure mechanisms. Commonly used engineering methods, such as the limit equilibrium method, have difficulty properly accounting for the coupling mechanism between slope deformation and failure, and their instability criteria often rely heavily on empirical judgment. Therefore, there is an urgent need to reveal the deformation-failure coupling mechanism of slopes under multi-process conditions and to establish a mechanical model for progressive slope failure. [Methods] This study proposed a novel research approach of “integrated analysis of the deformation and failure process”, which used measurable deformation to quantitatively track and describe the failure process, in combination with multi-factor testing and multi-perspective analysis. To this end, centrifugal model testing and measurement techniques for slope multi-processes were developed. These techniques could effectively simulate various loads, environmental changes, and engineering scenarios, while enabling full-field, whole-process measurement of slope deformation. Based on experimental observations, the slope failure process was quantitatively determined, and the progressive failure characteristics of slopes, along with the influence of loading conditions, were investigated. Under various test conditions, the deformation-failure coupling mechanism of slopes and its influencing factors were revealed, and the applicability of this mechanism was discussed. By introducing a coupled macro-micro integrated model for load-water-time effects and the slope deformation-failure coupling mechanism, three major mechanical equations were formulated, and an integrated analysis method for slope deformation and stability was developed. New equipment, independently developed on a centrifugal model testing platform, was used to simulate various loads, environmental changes, and engineering scenarios. A high-quality image-based displacement measurement system for the centrifugal field was developed, achieving multi-factor coupling simulation and measurable deformation. [Results] Slope failure was progressive and its evolution primarily depended on loading conditions. Changes in factors such as loading, water, and time induced localization near the potential failure surface of the slope, forming a “localization zone” that comprehensively reflected the main characteristics of slope deformation-failure behavior. The evolution of this localization zone reflected the coupling mechanism between the slope deformation localization process and the failure surface formation process. The increasing degree of localization development led to local failure within the zone, which subsequently exacerbated the degree of localization in the surrounding slope. The potential failure surface could represent this localization zone and exhibited a displacement coordination rule. Regardless of whether it was before, during, or after slope failure, the relative horizontal displacement of the soil masses on either side of the potential failure surface was independent of their spatial position. [Conclusion] Practical applications were conducted on typical projects including reservoir slopes and mining slopes. Slope displacement monitoring data obtained by the Global Navigation Satellite System were used for parameter inversion analysis, and the optimized parameters were then applied to calculate the slope response. The predicted slope displacement shows consistency with the monitored slope displacement, verifying the effectiveness of the proposed method. Furthermore, a practical slope failure case was analyzed using the proposed method. The slope stability safety factor was calculated. The results show that the slope stability gradually decreases and ultimately reaches a value lower than 1.0, which indicates that slope failure has occurred. Further analysis shows that the predicted failure time is in good agreement with the actual failure time. The findings demonstrate that the integrated deformation-stability analysis method can uniformly calculate slope deformation and stability. It effectively computes the entire process of slope deformation from small strains to post-failure, as well as the evolution of the stability safety factor. This method addresses the challenge of scientifically predicting slope stability based on deformation monitoring.