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山洪灾害全链条防控技术与防灾减灾模式探究
Full-Chain Prevention and Control Technology and Disaster Mitigation Model for Flash Floods
针对极端降雨条件下山洪灾害频发、传统防控适应性不足及现有研究碎片化等问题,研究突破小流域精细化防控、跨主体协同等短板,构建“监测-预警-防控-应急-复盘”全链条体系,为山丘区防洪保安提供科技支撑。通过整合多源数据资源,研发高精度低功耗监测设备,融合水文机理与机器学习,建立动态预警模型及区域风险模型;创新“自然-社会”二元防灾模式,提出分区适配的应急处置方案,所提技术及模式在五大典型示范区应用验证。研究成果包含研发降雨土壤水分微感知计等设备,建立空天地一体化监测网络;动态预警模型延长预见期20%以上,洪峰流量预报精度提升至60%以上;构建的综合风险评估模型准确度超70%,“关口前移”等模式使应急处置时效提高10%以上,形成可复制的防灾范式。全链条防控技术体系与二元防灾模式突破多源数据融合等技术瓶颈,提升了山洪灾害监测预警精度与应急处置能力,为应对气候变化下山洪风险、推进和美乡村建设以及保障山丘区可持续发展提供重要支撑。
[Objective] In response to the frequent occurrence of mountain flood disasters under extreme rainfall conditions, the insufficiency of traditional prevention and control measures, and the fragmentation of existing research, this study aims to break through the shortcomings of fine-grained prevention and control in small watersheds and cross-subject collaboration, and to establish a full-chain system integrating monitoring, early warning, prevention and control, emergency response, and review, providing technological support for flood security in mountainous and hilly areas. [Methods] By integrating multi-source data resources, developing high-precision and low-power monitoring equipment, and combining hydrological mechanisms with machine learning, dynamic early warning models and regional risk models were established; a “nature-society” dual disaster prevention model was innovated, and emergency response plans adapted to different zones were proposed. The proposed technologies and models were verified in five typical demonstration areas. [Results] The research achievements include the development of micro-piezoelectric rain gauges and other equipment, and the establishment of an integrated monitoring network of air, land and space; the dynamic early warning model extended the lead time by more than 20%, and the accuracy of peak flow forecasting was increased to over 60%; the comprehensive risk assessment model constructed had an accuracy of over 70%, and the “forward shift” and other models improved the timeliness of emergency response by more than 10%, forming a replicable disaster prevention paradigm. [Conclusions] The full-chain prevention and control technology system and the dual disaster prevention model have broken through technical bottlenecks such as multi-source data integration, improving the accuracy of mountain flood disaster monitoring and early warning and emergency response capabilities, providing important support for responding to mountain flood risks under climate change, promoting the construction of beautiful and harmonious villages, and ensuring the sustainable development of mountainous and hilly areas.
山洪灾害 / 监测预警 / 防灾减灾 / 模式构建 / 变化环境
flash floods / monitoring and early warning / disaster prevention and mitigation / pattern construction / changing environment
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应急管理部—教育部减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京师范大学国家安全与应急管理学院, 应急管理部国家减灾中心, 等. 2023年全球自然灾害评估报告[R]. 日内瓦: 联合国减少灾害署, 2024.
(Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management, Ministry of Education School of National Safety and Emergency Management,
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全球气候变化和人类活动影响下，洪水事件发生的频率和强度呈显著增加趋势。该文基于紧急灾难数据库(EM-DAT)利用数理统计法分析了1965—2023年全球洪水事件的时空演变规律; 从危害性、暴露度、脆弱性3个角度遴选了地理高程、降水量、人口密度及城市化率等作为洪水风险分析的主要因素，探究了洪水风险因素的时空变化并利用熵权法计算了世界六大洲的洪水风险值。主要结论如下：1) 从1965年到2023年，全球洪水事件呈现波动上升趋势，随着防灾减灾能力的提升，影响人数和死亡人数自20世纪90年代以来呈现下降趋势; 其中，亚洲、非洲和南美洲地区洪水发生频繁。海地单位国土面积洪水发生次数最高，为23次/104km2。孟加拉国单位国土面积洪水影响人数和死亡人数最高，59年累计值分别达到2 710万人/104km2和3 313人/104km2。2) 世界六大洲的洪水危害性、暴露度和脆弱性具有显著差异性，其中人口密度和降水对洪水风险影响程度最大，权重分别为0.33和0.30; 亚洲洪水风险最高，并在1965—2023年呈显著增加趋势。未来研究可基于人口流动性进一步探讨暴露度变化，并结合洪水应对能力等影响脆弱性的因素分析，以更全面地揭示洪水风险的动态特征。
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山洪灾害临界雨量预警指标受多种因素影响,尤其是前期土壤湿度状况和降雨变化。基于分布式水文模型和情景分析法确定安徽省岳西流域的山洪灾害临界雨量集合,评估前期土壤湿度状况、雨型和预警时段对临界雨量变化的影响。研究表明：① 中国山洪水文模拟系统在研究区内具有较好的适用性,率定期和验证期的平均径流深和洪峰流量相对误差均在15%以内,平均峰现时间误差在1h以内,平均Nash-Sutcliffe系数为0.79和0.77;② 60种情景模式下,池墩组村的临界雨量集合为141~528 mm;③ 前期土湿状况和雨型均显著影响临界雨量变化,随着土壤饱和率从0.20分别增加到0.50和0.80,临界雨量分别减少13.7%~16.2%和26.8%~31.8%;短历时预警时,临界雨量由大到小的相应雨型分别为减弱雨型、中间雨型和增强雨型。研究可为山洪灾害预报和早期预警提供理论支持,也为中国山洪灾害防治提供参考和借鉴。
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山区局地降雨是诱发暴雨山洪的最主要因素,加强山区小流域雨量监测,分析致灾临界雨量指标值并及时发布有效预警信息,是降低山洪灾害损失的有效非工程手段。目前针对暴雨山洪灾害研究主要集中在短时临近预报预警领域,对山洪监测技术适用性研究不足,山洪暴发的时空尺度具有特异性,传统监测站网无法满足山区暴雨高强度短历时的监测需求,当前构建跨尺度山洪监测体系仍具有一定难度。针对山洪监测技术中雨量监测研究现状,评述了国内外雨量计、测雨雷达、卫星遥感、微波链路测雨及降雨融合技术研究进展。暴雨山洪监测技术虽然在不断发展,但单一监测传输手段及信息源将无法满足复杂山区环境的山洪监测要求,通过构建山洪立体监测技术体系,可为山洪过程模拟、洪灾风险评估及山洪预报预警提供实时雨量监测数据和技术支撑。
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近期，国家气象中心推出了中国自行研制的多源降水融合产品，理论上，此产品的出现可有效解决国内缺乏监测站点区域的洪水预报预警问题，但是国产降水融合产品在这个领域应用较少，且其数据精度及其在暴雨洪水过程模拟的效用有待进一步评估。本文选取湍河上游后会水文站控制流域作为研究区域，采用模块化时空变源分布式水文模型，以站点降水和国产融合降水作为模型的输入，其中国产融合降水是基于地面雨量站、雷达、FY-2气象卫星三种数据源融合而成，对后会流域2018年两场实测洪水过程进行模拟，用以评估国产融合降水信息的水文模拟效用和数据精度，研究结果表明：国产融合降水产品在降水落区的把握上具有较高的精准度，但在数量上相对于站点观测数据具有一定程度的低估，在两个洪水过程中分别为13.1%和3.4%。在流域径流模拟方面，此融合降水产品具有较高的精度，两场洪水过程的确定性系数均在0.8以上，分别为0.84和0.91。国产多源融合降水产品在无资料流域洪水预报的问题上具有较好的应用前景，研究成果可为评估、改善国产融合降水数据的质量提供案例支撑和技术参考。
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Recently, the National Meteorological Center has launched China ’s self-developed multi-source precipitation fusion product. In theory, the emergence of this product can effectively solve the problem of flood forecasting and early warning in areas where there are no monitoring stations in China. However, domestic precipitation fusion products are rarely used in this field. The data accuracy and accessibility of this products in the simulation of storm and flood process need to be further evaluated. In this paper, the basin, controlled by Houhui hydrological station, in the upper reaches of the Tuanhe river is selected as the research area. We adopted a modular spatio-temporal variable source distributed hydrological model, taking station precipitation and domestic fusion precipitation as model inputs. The domestic fusion precipitation, blending ground rainfall stations, radar, and the FY-2 meteorological satellite, is used to simulate two measured flood processes in the Houhui Basin in 2018 to evaluate the hydrological simulation effectiveness and data accuracy of domestic fusion precipitation information. The results show that domestic fusion precipitation products have a high degree of accuracy in grasping the area of precipitation, but it is underestimated to a certain extent relative to the observation data of the site, which were 13.1% and 3.4% in the two flood processes, respectively. In terms of runoff simulation, this fusion precipitation product has high accuracy, and the certainty coefficients of the two flood processes are above 0.8, which are 0.84 and 0.91, respectively. Domestic fusion aquatic products have better application prospects on the issue of flood forecasting in dataless basins. The research results can provide case support and technical reference for assessing and improving the quality of domestic fusion precipitation data.
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Flash flood is common problem in the developed or developing country especially in urban areas. This is due to the changes of land use, poor planning of drainage system, deforestation and unplanned land use and etc. Flash flood susceptibility modelling (FFSM) for urban area is important to avoid the loss and etc. FFSM can be vital component and essential tools for planning and management of natural disaster and environmental. The objective of this paper is to review selected paper on flash flood susceptibility modelling using Geographic Information System (GIS) coupling empirical models. A lot of methods have been coupling with GIS to developed flood susceptibility modelling, for example, Weight of Evidence, Random Forest, etc. However, there is still lack of susceptibility model for flash flood. The GIS coupling method can improve the accuracy of flood susceptibility modelling. Thus, this paper will review the ability of GIS coupling with empirical models for the flash flood susceptibility modelling.
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In recent years, flash floods have repeatedly occurred in\ntemperate regions of central western Europe. Unlike in Mediterranean\ncatchments, this flooding behaviour is unusual. In the past (especially\nin the 1990s), floods have been characterized by predictable, slowly rising water\nlevels during winter and driven by westerly atmospheric fluxes. Here, we\nexplore potential links and causes between the recent occurrence of flash\nfloods in central western Europe to extreme precipitation and specific\natmospheric conditions. We hypothesize that a change in atmospheric\nconditions has led to more frequent extreme precipitation events that have\nsubsequently triggered flash flood events in central western Europe. To test\nthis hypothesis, we compiled data on flash floods in central western Europe\nand selected precipitation events above 40 mm h −1 from radar data\n(the RADOLAN “Radar-Online-Adjustment” dataset from the German Weather Service). Moreover, we identified proxy parameters representative of\nextreme precipitation favouring atmospheric conditions from the ERA5\nreanalysis dataset. High specific humidity ( q ) in the lower troposphere ( q ≥0.004 kg kg −1 ), sufficient latent instability (convective available potential energy (CAPE) ≥ 327 J kg −1 ), and weak wind speeds between 10 m a.g.l. and 500 hPa (WS10m-500hPa≤6 m s −1 ) proved to be characteristic of intense rainfall that can potentially\ntrigger flash floods. We relied on linear models to analyse 40 years worth (1981–2020) of atmospheric parameters as well as related\nprecipitation events. We found significant increases in the atmospheric moisture\ncontent and increases in atmospheric instability. Parameters representing\nthe motion and organization of convective systems remained largely unchanged\nin the considered period (1981–2020); however, the number of precipitation\nevents, their maximum 5 min intensities, and their hourly sums were\ncharacterized by large interannual variations, and no trends could be\nidentified between 2002 and 2020. Our study shows that there is no single\nmechanistic path leading from atmospheric conditions to extreme\nprecipitation and subsequently to flash floods. The interactions between the\nprocesses involved are so intricate that more analyses which consider other potentially relevant factors, such as intra-annual\nprecipitation patterns or catchment-specific parameters, are required.\n
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