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基于数字滤波法的长江上游不同频率年基流变化特征
Variation Characteristics of Annual Baseflow at Different Frequencies in Upper Yangtze River Using a Digital Filtering Method
为探究长江上游流域基流的演变规律,选取流域内的巴塘站、石鼓站、屏山站、朱沱站、高场站、北碚站、武隆站、寸滩站和万县站共9个典型水文站点作为研究对象,采用数字滤波法对1991—2016年逐日径流数据进行基流分割,利用MK检验法分析基流年际变化趋势,并对基流序列划分不同频率年(特枯水年、枯水年、平水年、丰水年),引入基流指数与基流量等指标量化枯水期和丰水期基流特征。结果表明:基流量年内变化呈单峰型分布特征,峰值多出现在7—9月份,谷值多出现在2—4月份;丰水期基流量年际波动幅度较大(极值比范围为1.24~4.44),枯水期波动幅度较小(极值比范围为1.02~1.27);基流指数年内变化呈先降后升的“M”型变化规律,极小值集中于5—7月份,极大值集中在1—3月份;9个站点枯水期基流指数范围为0.51~0.78,表明枯水期地下水对河道径流贡献率超过50%,是河川径流稳定且重要的补给来源。研究结果可为长江上游流域枯水期生态需水保障与水资源调度提供理论支持。
[Objective] Addressing critical gaps in understanding the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) baseflow dynamics is essential for regional water security and ecological sustainability. This study presents the first comprehensive multi-station assessment across the mainstream (Jinsha River and Yangtze River mainstream) and major tributaries (Minjiang River, Jialing River, and Wujiang River) for selected hydrological frequency years (extremely dry P=95%, dry P=75%, normal P=50%, wet P=25%), integrating spatial scalability and hydrological variability to quantify spatiotemporal baseflow trends, evaluate dry (November-April) and wet season baseflow volume (BFV) and index (BFI) characteristics, and assess groundwater’s role in sustaining river flow during droughts. [Methods] Daily runoff data (1991-2016) from nine key hydrological stations (Batang, Shigu, Pingshan, Zhutuo, Gaochang, Beibei, Wulong, Cuntan, Wanxian), representing >85% of the UYRB runoff, were examined. Baseflow was separated using the Lyne-Hollick digital filtering method (α=0.925, three passes). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test (significance threshold |Z|>1.96, α=0.05) identified temporal trends and abrupt changes (UF/UB statistics). Annual baseflow series were fitted to the Pearson Type III distribution to determine BFV for each hydrological frequency year. Seasonal BFV and BFI were examined for defined dry and wet seasons. [Results] Spatially heterogeneous trends were identified: significant increases were observed at stations in the upper Jinsha River (Batang, Shigu; UF>1.96 post-2010), linked to accelerated glacier/snowmelt from Qinghai-Xizang Plateau warming, while significant decreases were observed at Wanxian near the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR; UF<-1.96 post-2004), with a 2005 change point aligning with TGR impoundment; mid-basin stations showed non-significant fluctuations. Dry-season BFV exhibited exceptional stability between hydrological frequency years, with the ratio of BFV in extremely dry years to wet years ranging narrowly from 1.02 to 1.25. Conversely, wet-season BFV varied substantially (extremely dry to wet year ratio: 1.33 to 2.09), particularly in tributaries (Beibei: 1.88; Wulong: 2.09) due to rapid precipitation response. Wet-season BFV consistently exceeded dry-season BFV (mean annual ratio: 1.24 to 4.44), peaking from August to October and reaching a minimum from March to May, with the highest seasonal amplitude in the Jinsha headwaters (Batang: 4.44) and reduced variability near TGR (Wanxian: 1.94-2.94). Notably, baseflow consistently supplied >50% of dry-season river flow across all stations and frequency years (BFI range: 0.51-0.78), exhibiting a distinct V-shaped annual pattern peaking from January to March. Dry-season BFI ranked extremely dry > dry > normal > wet years, confirming groundwater’s amplified role during droughts. [Conclusion] This integrated assessment provides four key findings: 1) it reveals contrasting baseflow responses driven by climate change (increases in glacier-fed headwaters) versus reservoir regulation (decreases near TGR). 2) Dry-season baseflow demonstrates exceptional stability between extremely dry and wet years (BFV ratio ≤1.25), acting as a reliable water source. 3) Wet-season baseflow is highly sensitive to precipitation variability (BFV ratio up to 2.09), with tributaries more vulnerable. 4) Most critically, groundwater-derived baseflow consistently provides >50% of dry-season flow across all hydrological conditions, confirming its indispensable role as a climate-resilient resource that buffers droughts, securing ecological flows, while providing a basis for sustainable water allocation policies in the UYRB.
长江上游流域 / 数字滤波法 / 频率年 / 基流指数 / 枯水期
Upper Yangtze River Basin / digital filtering method / frequency year / baseflow index / dry season
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