长江中游城市群是我国中部崛起战略的重要区域，密集人口和高度工业化导致水资源供需矛盾突出。基于湖北、湖南、江西三省多年统计数据，采用模糊层次分析法计算指标权重，运用集对分析方法计算区域水资源承载力系统与承载等级之间的联系数来评价区域水资源承载力，并通过标准差椭圆分析区域水资源承载力分布格局与演化轨迹。结果表明：①长江中游城市群水资源承载力联系数呈逐年上升趋势，均值总体提升0.20，表明区域水资源承载力有所提升；②城市水资源配置和污染治理持续优化，万元GDP用水量和城市污水处理率联系数提升>0.70；③长江中游北部城市水资源承载力较差，标准差椭圆重心由东向西北部移动，区域水资源承载力空间均衡性不断提高。研究成果可为长江中游地区水资源优化配置与区域协调治理提供科学依据和决策参考。

[Objective] The urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of Yangtze River Basin is a key region in the “Rise of Central China” strategy. Dense population and high-level industrialization have led to severe contradictions between water supply and demand. By calculating the connection values of regional water resources carrying capacity （WRCC）， this research aims to provide scientific references and empirical support for optimizing regional water resource allocation， promoting sustainable socioeconomic development， and informing policy practices for high-quality water conservancy development within the Yangtze River Economic Belt. [Methods] Based on multi-year statistical data from Hubei， Hunan， and Jiangxi provinces， we applied the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） to calculate indicator weights， set pair analysis （SPA） to evaluate the WRCC by quantifying the connection numbers between the system and carrying grades， and the standard deviational ellipse （SDE） method to analyze the spatial distribution pattern and evolution trajectory of WRCC. [Results] （1） The WRCC of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of Yangtze River were increasing， with the average connection number increasing by 0.20； （2） Water allocation and pollution control have been optimized， with connection numbers for water use per GDP unit and urban sewage treatment rate increasing by more than 0.70； （3） Northern cities exhibit lower WRCC， and the SDE centroid has shifted from the east to the northwest， indicating improved spatial balance in WRCC. [Conclusions] Although the WRCC of the study region has been continuously improving， there are still spatial differences. It is necessary to strengthen water resources regulation and control capabilities in the high-consumption industrial areas and high-population density areas in the northern part of the urban agglomeration. The findings provide scientific evidence and decision-making support for water resource optimization and regional coordinated management in the middle Yangtze River region.