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长江十年禁渔执法博弈与NetLogo仿真——以鄱阳湖为例
Game-Theoretic Analysis and NetLogo Simulation of “Ten-Year Fishing Ban” Enforcement in Yangtze River: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake
[Objective] The “Ten-Year Fishing Ban” is a critical ecological conservation strategy designed to restore the Yangtze River ecosystem in China. However, its implementation and management have been hindered by persistent challenges and recurrent issues. Taking Poyang Lake as a case study, this study integrates field investigations with NetLogo to simulate enforcement dynamics. It further explores the impact of strategy probability combinations, levels of economic penalties, and land-water patrol resource allocation on enforcement effectiveness, aiming to provide insights for long-term management strategies of the fishing ban. [Methods] This study employed a game-theoretic framework, constructing a payoff matrix to model the strategic interactions between law enforcers and poachers. Nash equilibrium solutions were derived from field data and government statistics to inform resource allocation strategies for subsequent multi-agent simulations. Key policy variables, including the apprehension frequency, levels of economic penalties, and the ratio of terrestrial to aquatic enforcement resources, were evaluated through parameter sensitivity analysis. [Results] (1) the probability distribution of different law enforcement strategy combinations significantly influenced the intensity of illegal fishing activities. Intelligent surveillance was identified as a critical tool for the long-term management of the fishing ban. The simulation also reflected common poacher tactics, including equipment upgrading, coordinated operations, and exploitation of familiar fishing areas. Consequently, local enforcement should rely primarily on high-tech intelligent surveillance, supplemented by manual patrols and public education, with an apprehension frequency exceeding 0.41 to effectively deter illegal fishing. (2) Both the levels of economic penalties and the apprehension frequency exerted a suppressive effect on poaching activities, with the apprehension frequency demonstrating a more pronounced impact. Moreover, a clear substitution effect between these two factors was observed: in terms of enforcement effectiveness, increasing the apprehension frequency by 0.01 was equivalent to raising economic penalties by 2 000 yuan, approximately 0.07 times the illegal gains. Therefore, imposing high economic penalties and maintaining a high apprehension frequency were confirmed as primary measures to deter illegal fishing. Specifically, economic penalties must exceed 1.53 times the illegal fishing income to effectively deter violations. Moreover, increasing the apprehension frequency (even through verbal warnings and education) was found to exert a stronger deterrent effect than imposing economic penalties. (3) Analysis of optimal enforcement efficiency revealed that, regardless of whether a high economic penalty or a high apprehension frequency strategy was adopted, 84%-86% of law enforcement resources should be allocated to shoreline areas. This was attributed to the complex topography of the shoreline, which limited the effectiveness of technical surveillance and increased the difficulty of manual patrols. This allocation recommendation also aligned with empirical observations that productive poaching in open waters had decreased significantly since the fishing ban, while illegal fishing activities along the shore had continued to increase. [Conclusions] To ensure the long-term maintenance of the fishing ban, the following key strategies are proposed. (1) Enhanced intelligent surveillance: integrating drones, satellite remote sensing, radar, and optoelectronic thermal imaging to establish a 24/7 all-weather surveillance network is recommended. (2) Optimized penalty-prevention mechanisms: scientifically adjusting penalties based on violation severity, frequency, and ecological impact is proposed, aiming to address the issues of low-cost and recurrent illegal fishing. Innovative and diversified punitive measures that combine participatory education (e.g., mandatory community patrols) and deterrent sanctions (e.g., ecological restoration through fish stock enhancement) should be implemented to raise ecological awareness and enhance compliance among fishermen. (3) Cross-sector collaborative governance: a multi-jurisdictional data-sharing platform should be developed, and violation heatmaps should be utilized for precise allocation of enforcement resources. Interagency coordination among water administration, public security, and market regulatory agencies must be strengthened to establish a tiered and efficient regulatory framework. Furthermore, regional cooperation across city, town, and village levels should be enhanced, informed by international fishery management practices, and regular fishery resource surveys should be institutionalized.
禁渔执法 / 博弈 / 策略优化 / NetLogo仿真 / 鄱阳湖
fishing ban enforcement / game-theoretic analysis / strategy optimization / NetLogo simulation / Poyang Lake
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Protecting and utilizing the water resources in Yangtze River Basin has seen many problems and difficulties. In view of this,we discussed the paths of reconstructing and improving the management system and mechanism in the new era. To break the system and mechanism barriers in sustainable development,the management of water resources in the Yangtze River Basin should conform to the integrity and complexity of the basin. In the framework of coordination across the basin,we recommend to 1)build a sound system which integrates unified and separate management with overall linkage and interactions to forge a governance community for the basin with multiple stakeholders;2)enhance the mechanisms of diversified ecological compensation,cross-provincial river-lake-chief supervision,unified dispatch and management of controlling water projects,as well as spatial control and market operation. With such endeavors,the governance of water resources in Yangtze River Basin is expected to be further modernized.
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Fishermen are the core role of the ecological compensation policy for the fishing ban in the Yangtze River, so their satisfaction is related to the performance of the ecological compensation policy introduces with the fishing ban. Chishui River and Honghu, which were the first places in China to implement the policy, were selected as the research areas. Based on survey data from fishermen who have withdrawn from fishing, the TOPSIS which improved by entropy weights combined with the obstacle degree model was employed to evaluate the policy performance and to diagnose its influence factors. The results indicate that: (1) The values of positive and ideal solutions of fishermen's evaluation for the policy in Chishui River and Honghu is 0.45, 0.27 respectively, indicating the performance in the poor level; (2) The top three main factors are the social activities, social status, and living standards of the family, which may related to the satisfaction with government work after the fishing ban, This study provides an alternative analysis framework for the assetment of the performance of the fishing ban's ecological compensation policy, and provides a reference for other regions to improve the performance of policy. |
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