在全球气候变暖的背景下,长江流域干旱灾害风险持续增加,流域抗旱管理面临着旱情监测预警精度不高、抗旱调度预演预判能力不足等瓶颈问题,亟待深入研究。从抗旱业务管理和“四预”应用需求出发,构建了抗旱补水调度数字孪生平台,选择长江流域2022年特大干旱为典型案例,围绕“当前旱情诊断-未来趋势研判-抗旱调度推演-预案会商决策”全链条全过程开展了情景推演,构建了干旱网络舆情监测分析、旱警水位超限告警预警、抗旱调度方案知识库和场景匹配等关键技术,实现了抗旱“四预”目标,切实提升了流域抗旱管理智能化、精细化水平,为推进干旱防御数字孪生建设提供了技术示范。

[Objective] In response to the persistent high-temperature drought of the highest intensity since 1961 that occurred across most of the Yangtze River Basin during the summer and autumn of 2022, the Changjiang Water Resources Commission successively launched two rounds of special campaigns to combat drought, ensure water supply, and secure autumn grain harvest. A digital twin platform for drought relief scheduling in the Yangtze River Basin was developed and scenario simulations for drought defense were conducted, providing technical demonstration for the construction of a digital twin system for drought defense in the river basin. [Methods] The platform was developed in line with the operational requirements of early warning, simulation, and contingency planning. Using the platform, the severe drought in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022 were simulated. [Results] (1) Guided by the requirements of drought relief based on prediction, early warning, simulation, and contingency planning, and combining needs such as drought relief information management, emergency response, drought disaster verification and assessment, drought relief benefit evaluation, and drought relief contingency planning, a digital twin platform for drought relief and water replenishment scheduling was developed. Functions such as monitoring and alarm, prediction and early warning, scheduling simulation, contingency plan consultation, and user management were realized. (2) The severe drought in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022 was selected as a case study. Scenario simulations were conducted along the whole chain and entire process of “current drought diagnosis,future trend analysis,drought relief scheduling simulation,contingency plan consultation and decision-making”. “Current drought diagnosis” included drought monitoring data access, over-limit alarm for monitoring data, and monitoring of drought-related online public opinion, addressing the question of “where is the drought occurring?” “Future trend analysis” included drought prediction data access, prediction model calculation, and over-limit early warning for prediction data, addressing the question of “how will the drought evolve?” “Drought relief scheduling simulation” included the construction of a knowledge base of drought relief scheduling schemes and drought relief scheduling schemes based on knowledge base and scenario simulation, addressing the question of “how should the reservoirs be operated?” “Contingency plan consultation and decision-making” included drought relief emergency plan query, automatic generation of drought relief reports, and intelligent response of drought relief knowledge base, addressing the question of “what actions should be taken for drought relief?” [Conclusion] (1) A digital twin platform for drought relief and water replenishment scheduling is developed, and scenario simulation of the severe drought in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022 is conducted, forming a model case of a basin-level digital twin system for drought defense. (2) Future research should focus on water inflow and demand prediction models for the river basin, big data analysis of online public opinion, and intelligent matching and rolling optimization of drought relief scheduling scenarios, to effectively improve the intelligent level of drought relief and disaster reduction management in the Yangtze River Basin.