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El Niño事件对长江中下游陆地水储量变化与洪水风险的影响
Impacts of El Niño Events on Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly and Flood Risk in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River
[Objective] This study aims to analyze the changes in water resources in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and to investigate the impact of El Niño events on regional floods. [Methods] GRACE gravity satellite data from 2003 to 2022, released by various research institutions, were used to derive the Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) for the study area. Based on correlation coefficients and cross-correlation analysis, the CSR MASCON TWSA data series exhibiting strong correlations with the indices of both Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events was selected. Wavelet analysis, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, and the Flood Potential Index (FPI) were employed to investigate the influence of the two types of El Niño events on regional TWSA and to analyze their relationship with flood risk in the study area. [Results] The results were as follows: (1) the highest correlation between TWSA and the EP El Niño event was found at a time lag of 6 months, with a correlation coefficient reaching 0.630. TWSA peaks showed a positive response to EP El Niño events, while the response to CP El Niño events was unstable. (2) Cross wavelet transform revealed common resonance periods between TWSA and both types of El Niño events, and the impact of the EP El Niño event on water resource changes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was found to be more significant. The EOF analysis showed that the southern part of the study area was susceptible to the influence of both El Niño types. (3) The spatial distribution of the grid-based Flood Potential Index showed a higher flood risk in the southern part of the study area following the occurrence of both El Niño types. The flood risk corresponding to EP El Niño events was greater, with high-risk areas concentrated at the junction of the Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake sub-basins. In contrast, the flood risk distribution corresponding to CP El Niño events was more dispersed. [Conclusion] The results of this study, based on wavelet analysis, EOF analysis, and the Flood Potential Index, show that flood risk in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is closely related to El Niño events. These findings contribute to the prediction and prevention of floods in the region.
陆地水储量 / El Niño事件 / GRACE / 小波分析 / 洪水潜力指数
terrestrial water storage / El Niño events / GRACE / wavelet analysis / flood potential index
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近年来极端气候事件的频发对全球和区域性水循环产生了重大影响，特别是2005-2017年间两次强ENSO（El Niño-Southern Oscillation）事件使得全球陆地水储量出现了较大的年际波动.GRACE（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment）重力卫星随着数据质量的提高、后处理方法的完善和超过十年的连续观测，捕捉陆地水储量异常的能力明显提高，这为研究2005-2017年间两次强ENSO事件对中国区域陆地水储量变化的影响提供了观测基础.本文综合利用GRACE卫星重力数据、GLDAS水文模型和实测降水资料分析了中国区域陆地水储量年际变化和与ENSO的关系.研究发现：长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域与ENSO存在较高的相关性，与ENSO的相关系数最大值分别为0.55、0.78、0.70，较ENSO分别滞后约7个月、5个月和5个月.其中长江流域下游地区与ENSO的相关性最强，2010/11 La Niña和2015/16 El Niño两次强ENSO事件使得陆地水储量分别发生了约-24.1亿吨和27.9亿吨的波动.在2010/11 La Niña期间，长江流域下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量异常约在2011年4-5月达到谷值，而长江流域中游地区晚1~2月达到谷值.在2015/16 El Niño期间，长江流域中、下游地区和东南诸河流域陆地水储量从2015年9月到2016年7月持续出现正异常信号.其中，2015年秋冬季（2015年9月至2016年1月）陆地水储量异常明显是受此次El Niño同期影响的结果；2016年春季（4-5月）陆地水异常是受到此次厄尔尼诺峰值的滞后影响所致；2016年7月的陆地水储量异常则与西北太平洋存在的异常反气旋环流有关.
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研究黄河流域干旱时空变化特征,对认知黄河流域水资源演化规律具有重要意义。本文充分利用GRACE(gravity recovery and climate experiment)与GRACE-FO(GRACE Follow-On)重力卫星在大尺度范围下监测水文信息变化中的优势,基于2002年4月至2020年7月GRACE和GRACE-FO RL06 Mascon数据,计算了黄河流域陆地水储量异常(terrestrial water storage anomaly,TWSA)及对应的水储量亏损赤字(water storage deficit index,WSDI),据此分析了黄河流域上游、中下游干旱事件及其严重性、干旱持续时间、平均与最大水储量赤字等干旱特征,并与其他4种常用干旱指数,标准降水蒸散发指数(standardized precipitation evaporation index,SPEI)、自矫正帕尔默干旱指数(self correct-Palmer drought severity index,sc-PDSI)、标准化降水指数(standardized precipitation index,SPI)和标准化径流指数(standardized runoff index,SRI)识别结果进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:在WSDI识别出的黄河流域上游、中下游分别发生的5期干旱事件及其对应的干旱等级中,存在其他传统干旱指数未识别现象;在黄河流域以往干旱事件识别中,WSDI也展现出了较其他4种传统干旱指数显著的识别优势。相比传统干旱指标多仅依赖于稀疏地表水文监测信息,基于重力卫星监测数据的WSDI干旱指标可在大尺度范围下有效识别出流域干旱特征。
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The study on the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought in the Yellow River basin is of great significance to understand the evolution law of water resources in the Yellow River basin. We make full use of the advantages of GRACE (gravity recovery and climate experiment) and GRACE-FO (GRACE Follow-On)data in monitoring hydrological information changes on a large scale, to calculate the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) and the corresponding water storage deficit index (WSDI) of the Yellow River basin based on GRACE and GRACE-FO RL06 Mascon data from April 2002 to July 2020.Based on the above analysis revealed by the WSDI, the drought events and their severity, drought duration, average and maximum water reserve deficit in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River basin are analyzed. In addition, these analysis are compared with the recognition results of other four commonly drought indexes, standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), self correct-Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI), standardized precipitation index (SPI), and standardized runoff index (SRI). The results show that in the five periods of drought events and their corresponding drought grades in the upper reaches, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River basin identified by WSDI, there are other unidentified phenomena of traditional drought indexes.In the past drought event identification in the Yellow River basin, WSDI shows significant identification advantages over the other four traditional drought indexes. Compared with traditional drought indicators that mainly rely on sparse surface hydrological monitoring information, WSDI drought indicator based on gravity satellite monitoring data can effectively identify the characteristics of watershed drought on a large scale.
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受人类活动和气候变化影响,鄱阳湖水文情势发生了改变,掌握鄱阳湖水储量变化对流域水资源综合利用具有重要意义。利用GEE平台分析2003—2020年长系列逐月湖泊面积变化趋势,结合实测水位计算鄱阳湖湖泊水储量变化;利用GRACE的Mascon产品数据计算湖区陆地水储量变化,分析湖泊水储量与陆地水储量的变化关系。结果表明:基于GEE平台提取的湖泊面积、利用GRACE数据反演的陆地水储量变化的长期趋势与星子站实测水位变化一致,遥感影像显示湖区南部水体面积变化较小,常年有水范围面积更大,GRACE数据也表明南部多年平均陆地水储量较北部略高;湖区陆地水储量变化与星子站水位突变检验表明二者突变点一致,小波分析表明体积法计算的湖泊水储量变化与陆地水储量变化相关性显著,鄱阳湖陆地水储量受湖泊水储量变化影响大。
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. Many scientists have made use of the wavelet method in analyzing time series, often using popular free software. However, at present there are no similar easy to use wavelet packages for analyzing two time series together. We discuss the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence for examining relationships in time frequency space between two time series. We demonstrate how phase angle statistics can be used to gain confidence in causal relationships and test mechanistic models of physical relationships between the time series. As an example of typical data where such analyses have proven useful, we apply the methods to the Arctic Oscillation index and the Baltic maximum sea ice extent record. Monte Carlo methods are used to assess the statistical significance against red noise backgrounds. A software package has been developed that allows users to perform the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence (www.pol.ac.uk/home/research/waveletcoherence/).
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基于1979—2019年欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)ERA5逐月平均风速、有效波高,分析了风速和有效波高的时空变化特征。利用Mann-Kendall检验法分析其年际变化和经验正交函数分析方法(Empirical Orthogonal Function, EOF)研究空间分布特征。结果表明:(1)南大西洋风向以30°S,10°W为中心逆时针旋转,风速大值区以东南信风带和西风带控制区为主,低值区以副高和低压带控制区为主。冬季风速高于其他季节,且全年风速和风向分布天气系统的季节变化有关。(2)有效波高与风速之间有很强的相关性,且二者都呈纬向环状型空间分布特征。冬季有效波高整体最大,夏季整体偏小。(3)Mann-Kendall检验结果显示风速和有效波高年际变化均呈上升趋势,风速在2006和2009年附近出现突变,有效波高于1994年前后出现突变。(4)风速EOF第一模态显示,信风带-西风带与副高带-低压带反向型分布,前者风速呈显著上升趋势,后者呈下降趋势。有效波高EOF第一模态显示:60°S以北海域有效波高变率为正位相,以南为负位相,正位相区域有效波高增大趋势显著,负位相区域有效波高减小趋势显著。
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Based on the monthly average wind speed and significant wave height of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 from 1979 to 2019, the temporal and spatial characteristics of wind speed and significant wave height were analyzed. The Mann-Kendall test method was used to analyze its inter-annual variation and the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis method was used to study the spatial distribution characteristics. The results showed that: (1) The wind direction of the South Atlantic Ocean rotated counter clock wise with 30°S and 10°W as the center. The areas with high wind speed were mainly controlled by the southeast trade wind belt and the west wind belt, and the low value areas were controlled by the subtropical high and low pressure zone. The wind speed in winter was higher than other seasons, and the wind speed and wind direction distribution throughout the year were related to the seasonal changes of the weather system. (2) There was a strong correlation between wind speed and significant wave height, and both of them were distributed in a zonal ring shape. The overall significant wave height was the largest in winter and smaller in summer. (3) Mann-Kendall test results showed that the inter-annual variation of wind speed and significant wave height both showed an upward trend. The wind speed had abrupt changes around 2006 and 2009, and the significant wave was higher than around 1994 and had abrupt changes. (4) The first mode of EOF of the wind speed showed that the trade wind belt-westerly belt and the subtropical high belt-low pressure belt were distributed in the opposite pattern. The wind speed of the former showed a significant upward trend, and the latter showed a downward trend. The first modal of EOF of the significant wave height showed that the significant wave height variability in the north sea area of 60°S was the positive phase, and the south was the negative phase. The significant wave height in the positive phase region had a significant increasing trend, and the significant wave height in the negative phase region had a significant decreasing trend.
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