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基于SSPs-USLE耦合的未来气候情景下鄱阳湖流域土壤侵蚀研究
Soil Erosion in Poyang Lake Basin under Future Climate Scenarios Based on SSPs-USLE Coupling
随着气候变化,鄱阳湖流域的降雨也发生一定改变,对土壤侵蚀产生潜在影响。通过对共享社会经济路径(SSPs)和通用土壤流失方程(USLE)耦合,建立了未来时期气候影响下土壤侵蚀模拟方法。结果显示:在时间上,未来时期鄱阳湖流域土壤侵蚀面积减少,但土壤侵蚀量增多。SSPs2-4.5、SSPs4-6.0、SSPs5-8.5情景下侵蚀面积分别减少906、916、912 km2/a;土壤侵蚀量分别增加2 022.60×104 、2 098.61×104 、3 154.35×104 t/a。在空间上,未来时期西北部和南部强烈及以上侵蚀面积增加,流域整体土壤侵蚀加剧。SSPs5-8.5情景下流域土壤侵蚀最严重,土壤侵蚀量达17 247.61×104 t/a;SSPs2-4.5情景下流域土壤侵蚀相对最少,土壤侵蚀量为16 115.86×104 t/a。
[Objective] Under the influence of climate change, the rainfall pattern in the Poyang Lake Basin has changed, potentially affecting local soil erosion and subsequently threatening water and ecological security in the basin. However, current research on soil erosion within the basin mostly focuses on historical periods, with relatively limited research on future soil erosion predictions. The lack of clarity regarding future soil erosion dynamics under climate scenarios constrains local soil and water conservation planning and erosion management. To address this gap, future soil erosion predictions are conducted for the Poyang Lake Basin to elucidate its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics under climate change impacts, thereby providing scientific references for local soil and water conservation planning and soil erosion management. [Methods] The SSPs-USLE coupled model at the Poyang Lake Basin scale was developed by integrating the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) in this study. Tailored to the specific conditions of the Poyang Lake Basin, the SSPs-USLE coupled model was applied to simulate soil erosion both during the historical period (2000-2022) and under three future climate scenarios (SSPs2-4.5, SSPs4-6.0, and SSPs5-8.5) for the period 2030-2060. Through statistical and comparative analysis of the results, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of soil erosion under different future scenarios were elucidated. The underlying causes were further analyzed based on existing literature, thereby providing targeted measures and recommendations. [Results] Temporally, the total area affected by soil erosion in the Poyang Lake Basin was projected to decrease in the future, while the total soil erosion volume was expected to increase. Specifically, under the SSPs2-4.5, SSPs4-6.0, and SSPs5-8.5 scenarios, the soil erosion area decreased by 906 km2/a, 916 km2/a, and 912 km2/a, respectively, predominantly occurring in areas with slight intensity erosion. Meanwhile, the total soil loss increased by 2 022.60×104 , 2 098.61×104 and 3 154.35×104 t/a under the same scenarios, mainly affecting areas with moderate or lower erosion intensity. Spatially, the northeast of Poyang Lake Basin in the historical period exhibited severe soil erosion, with a higher proportion of areas classified as strongly eroded or above. In the future, the northwestern and southern regions would experience a significant expansion of strongly eroded or above areas, leading to a more severe overall soil erosion problem in the basin. Among the different socioeconomic scenarios, the SSPs5-8.5 scenario resulted in the most severe soil erosion within the basin, with a total soil erosion volume of 17 247.61 × 104 t/a. The overall erosion intensity shifted from moderate to strong, indicating substantial pressure for future soil erosion control. In contrast, under the SSPs2-4.5 scenario, the basin experienced the least soil erosion, with a total soil erosion volume of 16 115.86×104 t/a. The overall erosion intensity transitioned from moderate to mild, suggesting lower pressure for subsequent soil erosion control. [Conclusion] Future soil erosion in the Poyang Lake Basin is predicted by developing an SSPs-USLE coupled model at the watershed scale, thereby addressing a critical data gap in future soil erosion in this region. The model results show that with the impact of climate change, soil erosion within the Poyang Lake Basin will exhibit an intensifying trend in the future, particularly with increased erosion volumes at areas with slight to moderate erosion intensities. This phenomenon is predominantly attributed to terrain and rainfall, with significant exacerbation concentrated primarily in localized heavy rainfall centers and mountainous/hilly terrain. Besides, among the three future scenarios, the SSPs2-4.5 scenario has the lowest degree of soil erosion deterioration in the watershed, which is a more desirable outcome for the future. Based on this, the local soil erosion control work should be taken seriously, and attention should be paid to addressing slight-to-moderate soil erosion areas in the Poyang Lake Basin. Multiple measures should be implemented in coordination to alleviate the impact of climate change on soil erosion in the basin, and promote social development towards SSPs2-4.5 or even better scenarios.
土壤侵蚀 / 气候变化 / 时空分布 / SSPs / USLE / 鄱阳湖流域
soil erosion / climate change / spatiotemporal distribution / SSPs / USLE / Poyang Lake Basin
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Research on the potential danger of soil erosion in karst area is weak at present. We interpreted the soil erosion intensity in Guizhou Province, a typical karst region, with land use, lithology, and base rock coverage as semantic factors by Geological Information System(GIS) according to <i>Standards for classification and gradation of soil erosion </i>and <i>Techniques standard for comprehensive control of soil erosion and water loss in karst region. </i> Furthermore, we assessed the potential danger of soil erosion in Guizhou by using the soil erosion potential danger index (SEPDI) based on the allowable soil loss value and the soil anti-erosion life. Results suggest that the area of soil and water loss in Guizhou has amounted to 47 831.73 km<sup>2</sup>, dominated by light erosion, with an erosion modulus of 341 t / (km<sup>2</sup>·a) and a SEPDI of 2.52, indicating high level of potential danger. The SEPDI of 25.3% of villages in Guizhou ranges between 2 and 3, among which Liupanshui, Qianxinan, and Bijie feature the highest risk.We recommend that prevention work should be incorporated into SEPDI rather than merely soil erosion degree, and special attention needs to be given to areas with high SEPDI but weak soil erosion levels.
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