为了全面分析赣江尾闾洪水情势变化,利用赣江尾闾6个测站实测流量或水位序列资料,结合现状河道条件下各频率洪水位变化情况开展研究。研究结果表明:赣江尾闾洪水位总体呈下降趋势,2003—2022年最高洪水位均值比1956—2002年下降0.24~1.65 m;赣江尾闾各频率洪水位出现不同程度下降,“湖洪”控制河段基本没有变化,“河洪”控制河段下降明显,各频率洪水位最大降低值为1.62~1.77 m;赣江尾闾局部河道洪水位下降说明相应河段行洪能力增加,进而说明相应防洪压力减轻,对防洪安全有利。赣江尾闾存在“河洪”与“湖洪”遭遇的情形。在未来防汛及工程规划设计中,应考虑研究赣江尾闾遭遇“河洪”与“湖洪”极端情形的影响。

Based on flow and water level sequence data from six stations, we analyzed the changes in water level of floods of different frequencies, thereby obtaining the flood regime variation in the tail channel of Ganjiang River. Results revealed a general decrease in flood levels in the tail channel of Ganjiang River, with the average highest flood level in 2003-2022 dropping by 0.24 to 1.65 meters compared to 1956-2002. Flood levels at various frequencies have reduced to varying extents, with control sections for lake flood remaining stable, while control sections for river flood significantly decreasing, declining by 1.62-1.77 meters to the maximum. Such declines indicate an enhanced flood carrying capacity of the corresponding river section, which means alleviated flood control pressure and improved flood control safety. Future flood control and engineering designs should consider scenarios of encountering both river flood and lake flood at the Ganjiang River tail channel, and the impact of such extreme situations should be thoroughly examined.