基于备用流量的水风光多能互补优化调度

方国华; 刘畅; 丁紫玉

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20231348

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长江科学院院报 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4) : 36-44. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20231348

水资源

基于备用流量的水风光多能互补优化调度

作者信息 +

Optimization Scheduling of Hydro-Wind-Solar Complementary Systems Based on Standby Flow

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

随着大规模风光电站接入,风光能源出力预测精度不足影响了电网的安全稳定运行。为解决此类问题,提出基于备用流量的水风光多能互补系统优化调度方法。首先,根据水电站的可用水量按比例设置备用流量,然后以发电量最大和余留负荷方差最小为目标建立基于备用流量的水风光多能互补优化调度模型,利用备用流量应对风光高发和低发的影响,最后对雅砻江下游梯级水电站及接入的风光电站进行实例研究。结果表明:相对于不设置备用流量,设置了备用流量的多能互补系统在典型丰水月(6月份)和典型枯水月(12月份)的发电量分别增加0.08%和1.97%,而余留负荷方差下降均超过40%;设置备用流量能够在保证发电效益的基础上减轻电力系统的供需平衡压力,保障电力系统安全稳定运行。该调度方法的有效性和实用性得到了验证,可供类似水电站参考。

Abstract

With the access of large-scale wind power stations and solar power stations, wind energy and solar energy affect the safe and stable operation of the power system due to the lack of prediction accuracy. This paper presents an optimal scheduling method for the hydro-wind-solar complementary system based on standby flow. First, the standby flow is set according to the available water of each hydropower station based on the inflow. Then, the optimal scheduling model based on standby flow is developed. The objectives of this model are to maximize power generation and minimize the variance of residual load. Standby flow serves to mitigate the impact of inaccurate wind and solar energy predictions. Finally, a case study is conducted on the cascade hydropower station and connected wind and solar power stations along the lower Yalong River. Results show that compared with the scenario without standby flow, the power generation efficiency of the multi-energy complementary system with standby flow in typical wet month (June) and typical dry month (December) increases by 0.08% and 1.97%, respectively; and the variance of residual load decreases by more than 40%. In conclusion, setting standby flow can balance the power supply and demand of the power system while ensuring power generation efficiency, thereby guaranteeing the safe and stable operation of the power system.

导出引用

方国华, 刘畅, 丁紫玉. 基于备用流量的水风光多能互补优化调度[J]. 长江科学院院报. 2025, 42(4): 36-44 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20231348

FANG Guo-hua, LIU Chang, DING Zi-yu. Optimization Scheduling of Hydro-Wind-Solar Complementary Systems Based on Standby Flow[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2025, 42(4): 36-44 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20231348

中图分类号： TV213 (水资源开发)

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摘要

ERA5地表下行太阳短波辐射数据是欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）最新的,具有高时空分辨率的再分析产品,该短波辐射产品可作为陆面模式大气强迫数据之一,并在区域气候评估、农业以及太阳能资源等方面具有重要应用。本文利用中国区域2011—2018年经过质控的91个国家级地面辐射站点观测数据,对其在中国大陆地区的适用性进行多时空尺度的评估,并与ERA-Interim、CFSR、MERRA2共3套全球大气再分析产品和1套CERES卫星反演SYN1deg的产品进行了比较。结果表明：① 在月均值尺度上,与其他再分析产品比较,ERA5产品与站点数据的Corr最高（0.939）,RMSE最小（28.309 W/m2）,Bias（15.4 W/m2）略大于ERA-Interim产品（13.2 W/m2）;CERES卫星反演产品与站点数据的Corr为0.955,RMSE为20.042 W/m2,Bias为5.3 W/m2;② 5套产品的辐射值均高于地面观测数据,存在高估现象,总体上,ERA5产品在中国大陆地区的整体精度高于其他再分析产品,但与CERES卫星反演产品还存在一定差距,日均值比较结论亦具有相似规律。③ 分区评估结果表明在再分析产品中,ERA5产品在4个区域与观测数据都有更好的一致性,但5套产品均在南部区域表现不佳。并且与东北和北部区域相比,ERA5产品和CERES卫星反演产品在西部区域和观测数据相比的RMSE和Bias也相对偏大。

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