智慧农业发展背景下,农业信息化是农业发展的重要动力,研究农业信息化对农业产业结构升级的影响作用,对推动农业结构调整、促进农业产业结构升级具有现实意义。以中国省际面板数据为基础,引入农业信息化发展水平的二次项,探究其与农业产业结构升级之间的非线性关系,进一步采用面板平滑回归模型分析农业信息化与农业产业结构升级之间的门槛效应。结果表明:农业信息化发展水平对农业产业结构升级呈现“倒U型”影响,且“倒U型”的拐点为门槛值;结合我国农业发展实际情况,研究发现农业信息化水平的提升,将促进农业产业结构升级的发展,但随着农业信息化水平的逐步上升,该推动作用将会边际递减。
Abstract
The advancement of intelligent agriculture has made informatization a vital catalyst for agricultural development. Investigating the influence of informatization on agricultural industrial structure is crucial for facilitating adjustment and upgrade in agricultural restructuring. We utilized the quadratic term of agricultural informatization development level to explore the nonlinear relationship between agricultural informatization and upgrading of agricultural industrial structure based on China's inter-provincial panel data. Furthermore, we employed the panel smooth regression model to analyze the threshold effect between agricultural informatization and upgrading of agricultural industrial structure. Results reveal that the development level of agricultural informatization exhibits an “inverted U-shaped” impact on upgrading the agricultural industry structure. The turning point of this inverted U-shaped curve represents the threshold value, which distinguishes a single threshold within the nonlinear relationship. Taking into account the actual situation of China's agricultural development, we found that the level of agricultural informatization promotes the development of the agricultural industrial structure upgrading. However, as agricultural informatization gradually rises, the driving effect would diminish marginally.
关键词
农业信息化 /
农业产业结构升级 /
面板模型 /
门槛效应 /
倒U型
Key words
agricultural informatization /
upgrading of agricultural structure /
panel model /
threshold effect /
inverted U-shape
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] 姜明梁, 邓 忠. 我国灌区信息化建设现状与发展对策[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2019(10): 132-133, 138.
[2] 张 雨, 边晓南, 张洪亮, 等. 数字孪生技术在大型灌区的应用前景研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2022, 41(增刊2): 71-76.
[3] 李 雪, 杨 柳, 齐国新, 等. 基于蒙特卡罗法的农业水利工程不可预见费研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2018, 36(7): 120-123.
[4] FORT T C. Technology and Production Fragmentation: Domestic Versus Foreign Sourcing[J]. The Review of Economic Studies, 2017, 84(2): 650-687.
[5] 窦百谦. 湖北省农业信息化水平测度与发展研究[D]. 武汉: 中南民族大学, 2021.
[6] 刘丽伟,高中理.美国发展“智慧农业”促进农业产业链变革的做法及启示[J].经济纵横,2016(12):120-124.
[7] 李向阳. 信息化对农业经济增长影响的回归分析[J]. 统计与决策, 2014(4): 147-150.
[8] 贾 铖, 夏春萍, 蔡 轶. 我国农业信息化水平的区域评价与提升研究[J]. 南方农业学报, 2017, 48(8): 1529-1536.
[9] 冯 献, 李 瑾, 曹冰雪. 信息化应用对农民增收的影响效应分析: 来自京津冀353个农户样本的证据[J]. 情报杂志, 2019, 38(4): 201-207.
[10] PORAT M U . The Information Economy: Definition and Measurement[M]. Washington, D.C.:U.S. Government Printing Office, 1977.
[11] HANSEN B E. Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 1999, 93(2): 345-368.
[12] GONZLEZ A, TERSVIRTA T, DIJK D. Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models[R]. Stockholm: Stockholm School of Economics, 2005.
[13] FOUQUAU J, HURLIN C, RABAUD I. The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach[J]. Economic Modelling, 2008, 25(2): 284-299.
[14] GRANGER C W J, TERÄSVIRTA T. Modelling Non-linear Economic Relationships[M]. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993.
[15] 白俊红,王 钺,蒋伏心,等.研发要素流动、空间知识溢出与经济增长[J].经济研究,2017,52(7):109-123.
[16] 曹 菲, 聂 颖. 产业融合、农业产业结构升级与农民收入增长: 基于海南省县域面板数据的经验分析[J]. 农业经济问题, 2021, 42(8): 28-41.
[17] 赖红兵, 鲁 杏. 我国农业现代化发展与农村水利建设关系的研究[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2020, 41(2): 66-74.
[18] 余泳泽,宣 烨,沈扬扬.金融集聚对工业效率提升的空间外溢效应[J].世界经济,2013,36(2):93-116.
[19] LESAGE J P, PACE R K. Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M]. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2009.
[20] ELHORST J P. Spatial Panel Data Models[J]. Berlin: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010:377-407.
[21] XIA J. Universal Service Policy in China (I): Institutional Elements and Ecosystem[J]. Telecommunications Policy, 2016, 40(2/3): 242-252.
[22] KELEJIAN H H, PRUCHA I R. Specification and Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Models with Autoregressive and Heteroskedastic Disturbances[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2010, 157(1): 53-67.
[23] 覃成林, 杨 霞. 先富地区带动了其他地区共同富裕吗: 基于空间外溢效应的分析[J]. 中国工业经济, 2017(10): 44-61.
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42201305,51709010)
PDF(4907 KB)
