基于时间序列的鄱阳湖Chl-a预测模型优化构建

钱春龙; 曾一川; 袁伟皓; 吴怡

doi:10.11988/ckyyb.20220718

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长江科学院院报 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (10) : 14-21. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20220718

河湖保护与治理

基于时间序列的鄱阳湖Chl-a预测模型优化构建

钱春龙¹, 曾一川², 袁伟皓², 吴怡²

作者信息 +

Optimal Construction of Chl-a Prediction Model for Poyang Lake Based on Time Series

QIAN Chun-long¹, ZENG Yi-chuan², YUAN Wei-hao², WU Yi²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

为提升鄱阳湖富营养化评估与预测适应性,选择湖区代表性点位2012—2020年的逐月监测作为模型样本训练时间。模型自变量选择水体主要理化参数,并计算其中水质参数部分的综合水质标识指数(WQII)以评价鄱阳湖近年水质演变趋势。进一步地,分别建立响应变量为叶绿素a(Chl-a)的多元线性逐步回归方程(MLSR)、季节性自回归求和移动平均模型(SARIMA),并预测所有点位2020年6—8月份的浓度值,与实测值比较以检验两种模型适用程度。结果显示:各代表监测点的综合水质在2018年出现提升且在丰水期更优,平均WQII排序为康山(2.91)>都昌(3.01)>蚌湖(3.11)>蛇山(3.31);SARIMA模型相比于MLSR方程的Chl-a浓度预测准确度更高,为大型通江湖泊藻类爆发预警提供了优化理论参考。

Abstract

To enhance the adaptability of eutrophication assessment and prediction in Poyang Lake, monthly monitoring data from representative locations within the lake area from 2012 to 2020 were selected as model training samples. Key physicochemical parameters of the lake were selected as independent variables for the model. The water quality integrated index (WQII) was calculated to assess the water quality changes in recent years. A multiple linear stepwise regression equation (MLSR) with Chl-a as response variable, and a seasonal autoregressive summation moving average model (SARIMA) were established respectively. The concentration values of Chl-a from June to August 2020 were predicted and compared with the measured values to assess the applicability of the two models. Results indicated an improvement in the overall water quality of the representative monitoring sites in Poyang Lake in 2018, with better conditions during flood season. The average WQII ranks in an order of Kangshan (2.91), Duchang (3.01), Banghu (3.11), and Shehan (3.31). Moreover, the SARIMA model demonstrated higher accuracy in predicting Chl-a concentrations compared to the MLSR equation, thereby offering an optimized theoretical framework for early warning of algal outbreaks in large river-connected lakes.

导出引用

钱春龙, 曾一川, 袁伟皓, 吴怡. 基于时间序列的鄱阳湖Chl-a预测模型优化构建[J]. 长江科学院院报. 2023, 40(10): 14-21 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20220718

QIAN Chun-long, ZENG Yi-chuan, YUAN Wei-hao, WU Yi. Optimal Construction of Chl-a Prediction Model for Poyang Lake Based on Time Series[J]. Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute. 2023, 40(10): 14-21 https://doi.org/10.11988/ckyyb.20220718

中图分类号： X832

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