为解决水资源供需矛盾和水环境恶化等问题,分析利益相关者目标间的冲突得到非劣解集,引入利益相关者的平等偏好、非合作偏好和合作偏好,在非劣解的基础上建立用水冲突协调模型,获得其偏好的协调解,并分析了利益相关者偏好对不同用水部门的影响。以赣抚平原灌区为研究区域,采用以上模型求解,结果表明:非劣解集上的模型解提升环境效用是以降低经济效用为代价的;平等偏好模型与非合作偏好模型得到的协调解与合作偏好模型的协调解近似,说明在利益相关者难以达成合作的情况下,在非劣解集上的平等偏好模型解与非合作偏好模型解可替代合作偏好模型解;相比于传统总效用最大的决策方法,3种偏好模型都更注重环境效用;赣抚平原灌区的缺水量主要由农业用水部门分担,原因在于农业用水部门用水量占比约为40%,排污量占比约为30%,为了减少总排污量,需要减少排污量较大的部门用水量,也是需要的节水量。研究成果为节水优先和环境保护提供了实用分析方法。
Abstract
A water conflict coordination method based on stakeholder preference is presented to address the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and the deterioration of water environment. The conflict between the objectives of stakeholders is analyzed to obtain the non-inferior solution set. On this basis, the concepts of equal preference, non-cooperative preference and cooperative preference of stakeholders are introduced to establish the model of water conflict coordination. The coordination solution is obtained, and finally the impact of stakeholder preferences on different water users is analyzed. The model is applied to the Ganjiang-Fuhe River Plain Irrigation Area, and the results show that the model solution based on the non-inferior solution set improves the environmental utility at the cost of economic utility. The coordination solution obtained by the equal preference model and the non-cooperative preference model is similar to that of the cooperative preference model. This suggests that when it is difficult for stakeholders to cooperate, the solution of the equal preference model and the solution of the non-cooperative preference model based on the non-inferior solution set can replace the solution of the cooperative preference model. Compared with traditional decision-making method with the maximum total utility, the presented three preference models pay more attention to environmental utility. The water shortage in Ganjiang-Fuhe River Plain Irrigation Area is mainly shared by agricultural sector because the water consumption of agricultural sector accounts for about 40%, and the sewage discharge accounts for about 30%. To reduce the total sewage discharge, it is necessary to reduce the water consumption of sectors with large sewage discharge, which also indicates the required water-saving amount. The research provides a practical analysis method for water-saving priority and environmental protection.
关键词
用水 /
冲突协调方法 /
平等偏好 /
非合作偏好 /
合作偏好 /
赣抚平原灌区
Key words
water /
conflict coordination method /
equality preference /
non-cooperative preference /
cooperative preference /
Ganjiang-Fuhe River Plain Irrigation Area
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基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51979199,U21A2002);江西省水利厅科技项目(202123YBKT15,202124ZDKT17)
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