长江科学院院报 ›› 2022, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 35-40.DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.202106992022

• 水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

马尔康市1954—2019年降水与旱涝灾害变化

侯雨乐1, 赵景波2   

  1. 1.阿坝师范学院 资源与环境学院,四川 汶川 623002;
    2.中国科学院地球环境研究所 黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,西安 710061
  • 收稿日期:2021-07-08 修回日期:2021-09-30 出版日期:2022-11-01 发布日期:2022-11-14
  • 通讯作者: 赵景波(1953-),山东滕州人,教授,博士,博士生导师,主要从事区域环境研究。E-mail:zhaojb@snnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:侯雨乐(1983-),山西交城人,副教授,硕士,主要从事区域自然地理研究。E-mail:512570915@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    阿坝州科技局项目(20YYJSYJ0034);四川省科技厅项目(21RKX0483);黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室项目(SKLLQG2013)

Variations in Precipitation Characteristics and Drought and Flood Disasters in Maerkang City from 1954 to 2019

HOU Yu-le1, ZHAO Jing-bo2   

  1. 1. School of Resources and Environment,Aba Teachers University,Wenchuan 623002,China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi'an 710061,China
  • Received:2021-07-08 Revised:2021-09-30 Online:2022-11-01 Published:2022-11-14

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摘要： 利用马尔康市1954—2019年逐月气温、降水量实测资料,基于气候倾向率、突变检验、信噪比检验、周期估算等方法对本区气候变化、旱涝灾害演变特征进行分析,并借助ADF检验、Granger因果关系分析来验证旱涝灾害的驱动因子。结果显示:马尔康市年均气温、年降水量均呈显著上升趋势,气候有暖湿化倾向;多年平均降水量以16.29 mm/(10 a)的速率增加,以夏季、秋季增多明显,春季增幅最小;2001年为本区气候突变点,气温突变后的旱涝灾害呈增多态势,极端洪涝事件更为频繁,2015—2019年是一次重大洪涝事件;太阳黑子活动与ENSO事件皆为降水量变化的Granger原因。厄尔尼诺与南方涛动事件(ENSO)事件与马尔康地区的旱涝灾害在6.6 a上有较同步的共振周期,滞后期为2 a的ENSO事件是旱涝变化的主要诱因之一。ENSO事件在年尺度上为区域旱涝预警提供了重要理论支撑。

关键词: 气候突变, 旱涝灾害, Granger因果关系, ENSO事件, 马尔康市

Abstract: The characteristics of climate change and evolution of drought and flood disasters in Maerkang City were examined through tests of climate tendency rate,abrupt change,signal-to-noise ratio,and cycle estimation based on the measured data of monthly temperature and precipitation from 1954 to 2019.The driving factors of drought and flood disasters were verified via ADF test and Granger causality analysis.The average annual temperature and annual precipitation showed a significant upward trend,and the climate tended to be warm and humid.The average annual precipitation increased at a rate of 16.29 mm/10a,obvious in summer and autumn while to the minimum in spring.Climate changed abruptly in 2001,after which the drought and flood disasters increased and the extreme flood events became more frequent.The years from 2015 to 2019 witnessed a large flood event.Both sunspot activity and ENSO(El Nin~o-Southern Oscillation) events are Granger causes of precipitation variation.The ENSO events and the drought and flood disasters have synchronous resonance period in 6.6 years.The ENSO event with a lag period of two years is one of the main causes of the changes in drought and flood disasters.ENSO events provide an important theoretical support for regional drought and flood warning on an annual scale.

Key words: abrupt climate change, drought and flood disasters, Granger causality, ENSO event, Maerkang city

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